CORN PRICE ACTION SPEAKS VOLUME. ANY HOPE LEFT FOR SOYBEANS?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Cattle slaughted limit down
China strikes back with tariffs
Great performance in corn
Corns price action past 2 days speaks volume
Why these tariffs might not have major effect on old crop soybeans
New crop beans tariffs are material but losing acres everyday
If we get a deal done with China and we lose those acres, that would lead to a 360 in beans
Reality is no one knows how China will shake out
The resolution could be very positive if it happens soon
Corn acres probably gaining even more acres
Corn up despite crude losing $10 in 2 days
Still hope for soybeans?
The downside risk vs upside potential in soybeans
Corn showing signs of something going on
Soybeans taking away supply
If you’re a big soybean grower and have to move something off the combine, you have to realize the risk & get comfortable
Despite everything.. corn is green on the week
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
May Corn 🌽
Despite the +95 million acres Monday, despite the trade war, despite the fear, despite the stock market having it’s worst 2-day performance since 2008, despite beans dropping -50 cents in 2 days, and despite crude oil dropped -$10 in 2 days… corn somehow managed to close higher on the week.
Can’t convince me this price action isn’t telling.
Flirting with this downtrend once again, a break above would look solid.
For bulls to claim a bottom would really like to see $4.70
Next upside objective is still $4.80
Dec Corn 🌽
Sams story in Dec corn. Chart looks solid given the circumstances
Next upside objective is $4.60
May Beans 🌱
Obviously the chart looks far worse than it did 2 days ago when it looked like we were breaking out before Trump and China ruined the party.
Altough it doesn’t look as pretty, by definition this potential inverse head & shoulders pattern is still valid unless we post new lows.
Unless we turn around now, the next support is $9.55 as we do not have any support under that key support box
If we post new lows, we will simply be trying to catch a falling knife.
When prices fall below contract lows specifically, you can’t say, “okay we went low enough, the low is in”
You can only say “okay we went high enough, the low is in”
Meaning you can’t really call the bottom to the downside, only the upside when we are trying to catch a falling knife below contract lows.
Here is more simple view of the H&S pattern.
Again, not as pretty but still valid unless we break below the head.
Break the head & the pattern becomes completely invalid.
Nov Beans 🌱
Chart is essentially the same for Nov
May KC 🌾
Touching the support box once again. Has held for 7 months. Bulls want to continue to do so, otherwise will be trying to catch a falling knife.
Everything between the lows and the recent highs is noise, simply a massive range.
May Chicago 🌾
Bouncing at the bottom of the channel, bulls want to hold to avoid catching a falling knife.
Continuous Chicago 🌾
Pretty much must hold area here. Have held this box for a year. Need to continue to do so or it triggers a leg lower.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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