DECENT PRICE ACTION. BASIS CONTRACTS. ROLLING VS FUTURES. NOT FALLING FOR BIG AG TRAP

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Beans trading higher despite very bearish tour

  • Potential reversals, but need follow through

  • (Technical charts & reversals below audio)*

  • If you know you have insurance payment coming, how to lock it in

  • Puking often signals bottoms. A rigged game

  • Rolling basis contracts vs re-owning with calls

  • Ways to outperform the market

  • Your own futures account vs elevators account

  • Reasons why I think we are close to lows

  • Basis contracts screw you in carry markets

  • Elevator does what’s right for them, not you

  • Not falling into Big Ag traps

  • Hopeful but plenty of downside risk

  • Wheat trying to buy acres

  • Seasonally make lows soon

  • They say buy heavy deliveries

  • Brazil is super dry, doesn’t matter yet

  • Some think this heat is heat is shaving some off US crops

Listen to today’s audio below

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CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

Almost a key reversal, but we didn’t post contract lows today. Chart looks decent, but still in an obvious clear downtrend.

First I want to see us take out that short term trendline.

Then resistance is at $4.03 and $4.09. Once we clear $4.09 the chart will look really good.

The bottom indicator for me still sits at $4.23 to $4.26

Nov Beans 🌱

3 green days in a row.

Looks like we might be trying to find a bottom here, finding support at that trade war resistance. BUT we are in a very clear downtrend still.

Once we break that May downtrend I’ll feel more confident.

But for me to be really confident, I need us over $10.42 which would mark our first higher high.

Still plenty of downside risk, as many are calling for sub $9.

Dec Wheat 🌾

Key reversal today.

We have seen this before. We absolutely need follow through.

If we get follow through then perhaps the bottom might be in. If not, then this key reversal doesn’t matter.

$5.10 is the implied downside move after we broke out of that 35 cent range (Blue Box).

To be confident the bottom is in, I’d like to see $5.80

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sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Sebastian Frost
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FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE & CROP TOUR RECAP