GRAINS SHOW SIGNS OF REVERSALS

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Some heat stress shows in crop conditions

  • All markets well off the lows, showing signs of reversals

  • With funds and weather, one would expect a pop

  • Seeing some politics & weather dominating markets

  • Mini black swan with EPA deal

  • Beans +21 cents off the lows

  • Targets for soybeans & corn

  • If you’ve sold wheat

  • Need more export sales

  • When to and when NOT to use basis contracts. Correct & incorrect ways. Corn, beans, & wheat

  • Today left us a mini buy signal

  • For those that reward the rally last week

  • Charts below*

Listen to today’s audio below

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CHARTS

Corn

As I have been saying for a few weeks, we have not confined a bottom until we take out $4.26.

The must hold level is still $4.03

Until $4.03 or $4.26 is broke, we are range bound.

Beans

Despite getting hammered Friday, today was one of the strongest reversal type candles in a long time. +21 cents off the lows. We made new lows but didn’t post a new low close. We will still need to see follow through however.

Friday we rejected right off that May downtrend.

The level to break to confirm a bottom is still $10.97

Chicago Wheat

We made new lows but bounced nicely back into the bottom of our recent range. Optimistic price action.

I still need to see at least $5.67 before I think about calling a bottom.

KC Wheat

Same story as Chicago. $6.00 is the level to watch.


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Check Out Past Updates

7/25/24

CHINA, DROUGHT, FUNDS & RISK

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7/24/24

BEANS LOWER DESPITE DROUGHT TALK

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7/23/24

BACK TO BACK GREEN DAYS FOR CORN & BEANS: MARKETING DECISIONS

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7/22/24

BEST DAY FOR GRAINS IN A LONG TIME

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7/19/24

DULL MARKETS: STRATEGIES TO USE IN GRAIN MARKETING

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 7/18/24

DEMAND, CHINA, POLITICAL PRESSURE, & TECHNICALS

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7/17/24

DIFFERENT GRAIN MARKETING SCENARIOS YOU MIGHT BE IN

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7/16/24

RELIEF BOUNCE FOR GRAINS

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7/15/24

GRAINS HAMMERED. TRADE WAR FEAR

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7/12/24

USDA REPORT: LOW PRICES CREATING DEMAND

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7/11/24

USDA TOMORROW

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7/10/24

GRAINS CONTINUE TO GET HAMMERED

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7/9/24

RAINS, RECORD FUND SELLING & 2014 COMPS

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7/8/24

PUKE SELLING, RAIN MAKES GRAIN & FUNDS RECORD SHORT

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7/3/24

THIN HOLIDAY TRADE FOR GRAINS

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7/2/24

BEARISH WEATHER, RECORD SHORTS, & CHINA

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7/1/24

SUPPLY WILL BE THERE, BUT CAN DEMAND LEAD US HIGHER?

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6/28/24

GARBAGE USDA REPORT

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6/27/24

BIGGEST USDA REPORT OF YEAR TOMORROW

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6/26/24

USDA PREVIEW & COUNTER SEASONAL RALLIES?

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6/25/24

POSSIBLE RISKS & OUTCOMES THIS USDA REPORT COULD HAVE

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6/24/24

VERY STRONG PRICE ACTION: RAINS & USDA KEY

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6/21/24

DON’T PUKE SELL. ARE YOU COMFORTABLE RIDING THIS STORM?

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6/20/24

RAIN OR NO RAIN FOR EAST CORN BELT?

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6/18/24

WEATHER MARKET ENTERING FULL SWING

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 6/17/24

SELL-OFF CONTINUES DESPITE FRIENDLY FORECASTS

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6/15/24

EXACT GRAIN MARKETING SITUATION BREAKDOWNS & WHAT YOU SHOULD BE DOING

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6/12/24

USDA SNOOZE: WHAT’S NEXT?

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 6/11/24

USDA TOMORROW

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6/10/24

IS USDA OVERSTATING CROP CONDITIONS? DOES IT MATTER?

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6/7/24

WEATHER & USDA NEXT WEEK

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6/6/24

ARE GRAIN SPREADS TELLING US SOMETHING?

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6/5/24

GRAINS NEARING BOTTOM? 7 DAYS OF RED

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6/4/24

HIGH CORN RATINGS, SCORCHING SUMMER, & RUSSIA CONCERNS

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6/3/24

5TH DAY OF THE SELL OFF. ARE YOU COMFORTABLE?

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5/31/24

4 STRAIGHT DAYS OF LOSSES IN GRAINS

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5/30/24

I DON’T THINK SEASONAL RALLY IS OVER. WHAT IS THE PLAN IF I’M WRONG?

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5/29/24

PLANTING DELAY STORY VANISHES. BUT IS REAL STORY OVER?

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5/28/24

GETTING COMFORTABLE WITH GRAIN MARKET VOLATILITY

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5/24/24

WET SPRINGS DON’T CREATE RECORD YIELDS, DO THEY?

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5/23/24

MANAGE RISK DESPITE STUPID PRICE POTENTIAL IN GRAINS

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5/22/24

BEANS NEAR NEW HIGHS. WHAT TO DO WITH WHEAT?

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5/21/24

BIG MONEY KEEPS DRIVING WHEAT HIGHER

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5/20/24

ALGOS & BIG MONEY CONTINUE TO MOVE GRAIN PRICES

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5/17/24

WEATHER MARKET VOLATILITY CONTINUES TO HEAT UP

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5/16/24

SITUATIONAL GRAIN MARKETING

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5/15/24

HEDGING VS GUESSING

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5/14/24

CORRECTIONS ARE HEALTHY

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5/13/24

FUNDS DON’T WANT TO BE SHORT GRAINS

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5/10/24

PRICE ACTION TELLS DIFFERENT STORY FROM USDA REPORT

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5/9/24

MARKET PRICING IN NEGATIVE REPORT. WHAT TO EXPECT FROM USDA

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5/8/24

USDA IN 2 DAYS

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5/7/24

WHO SHOULD WAIT FOR TRIGGERS NOT TARGETS

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5/6/24

GRAINS HIGHEST IN 4 MONTHS

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5/3/24

SEASONAL RALLY JUST BEGINNING OR BULL TRAP?

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5/2/24

ARE THE TIDES STARTING TO TURN?

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5/1/24

BE PATIENT & READY FOR THESE OPPORTUNITIES

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GRAINS FAIL REVERSAL BACK NEAR LOWS

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BLOOD BATH IN GRAINS: EPA REVERSAL & WEATHER