USDA BREAKDOWN
AUDIO COMMENTARY
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USDA increased corn demand
Corn carryout dropped -200 million
We didn’t see a massive move in corn like we should’ve with these numbers. Hints that trade knew demand was there
Carryout continues to trend smaller
World situation is also tight corn
This is a demand driven market
For those needing to take risk off the table, we are nearing the 200-day MA (Chart below)*
Things to consider if you are making sales
No changes to bean balance sheet
Could see beans continue to struggle
Still the time of year for Brazil weather scares
Looking for wheat to slowly grind higher
Longer term wheat still feels undervalued
Using the inverse in corn
Longer inverse lasts, more attractive a basis contract is
At levels where we don’t mind taking risk off the table in corn
Trump situation is major wildcard
KC wheat breakout? (Chart below)*
Charts & USDA numbers below*
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CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
Breakout we had been talking about was confirmed today.
Looks good. First target is the 200-day MA around $4.52
As I have been saying for quiet some time, when we hit a target that is the green light for you to take risk off the table if you need to do so.
Jan Beans 🌱
Really nothing new.
Still waiting to see if we bust that downtrend or take out this support. That will decide where we go from here.
Still a must hold support or we likely see a pretty big leg down. We have held that support for a long time.
March Wheat 🌾
Getting close to breaking out of this channel. Looks good for now and looks like bottoming action.
Still want to see us above $5.84 before calling a bottom however.
KC wheat actually broke out of it’s channel so it looks even more solid than Chicago (KC below)
March KC Wheat 🌾
Possible breakout underway.
Last channel we broke led to a nice rally.
Could see us testing that $5.89 area. Need to close above there to be confident in a bottom however.
USDA NUMBERS
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
12/9/24
USDA TOMORROW
12/6/24
CORN TRYING TO BREAKOUT. MAKING MARKETING DECISIONS
12/5/24
OPTIMISTIC BOUNCE IN GRAINS
12/4/24
WHEAT UNDERVALUED? MOST RISK IN BEANS. HAVE A GAME PLAN
12/3/24
BEANS HOLDING DESPITE LACK OF BULLISH STORY
12/2/24
TRUMP & BRAZIL HURDLES
11/27/24
CORN SPREADS, CRUCIAL SPOT FOR BEANS, SEASONALITY SAYS BUY
11/26/24
TARIFF TALK PRESSURE
11/25/24
HOLIDAY TRADE, SEASONALS, TARGETS & DOWNSIDE RISKS
11/22/24
CORN TARGETS & CHINA CONCERNS
11/21/24
BEANS NEAR LOWS. CORN NEAR HIGHS. 2025 SALE THOUGHTS
11/19/24
WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
11/18/24
WHEAT LEADS THE GRAINS REBOUND
11/15/24
BIG BOUNCE, FUNDS LONG CORN, DOLLAR & DEMAND
11/14/24
3RD DAY OF GRAINS FALL OUT
11/13/24
GRAINS CONTINUE WEAKNESS & DOLLAR CONTINUES RALLY
11/12/24
ANOTHER POOR PERFORMANCE IN GRAINS
11/11/24
POOR ACTION IN GRAINS POST FRIENDLY USDA
11/8/24
USDA FRIENDLY BUT GRAINS WELL OFF HIGHS
11/6/24
GRAINS STORM BACK POST TRADE WAR FEAR
11/5/24
ALL ABOUT THE ELECTION & VIDEO CHART UDPATE
11/4/24
ELECTION TOMORROW
11/1/24
GRAINS WAITING ON NEWS
10/31/24
ELECTION & USDA NEXT WEEK
10/30/24
SEASONALS, CORN DEMAND, BRAZIL REAL & MORE
10/29/24
WHAT’S NEXT AFTER HARVEST?
10/25/24
POOR PRICE ACTION & SPREADS WEAKEN
10/24/24
BIG BUYERS WANT CORN?
10/23/24
6TH STRAIGHT DAY OF CORN SALES
10/22/24
STRONG DEMAND & TECHNICAL BUYING FOR GRAINS
10/21/24
SPREADS, BASIS CONTRACTS, STRONG CORN, BIG SALES
10/18/24
BEANS & WHEAT HAMMERED
10/17/24
OPTIMISTIC PRICE ACTION IN GRAINS
10/16/24
BEANS CONTINUE DOWNFALL. CORN & WHEAT FIND SUPPORT
10/15/24
MORE PAIN FOR GRAINS
10/14/24
GRAINS SMACKED. BEANS BREAK $10.00
10/10/24
USDA TOMORROW
10/9/24
MARKETING STYLES, USDA RISK, & FEED NEEDS
10/8/24
BEANS FALL APART
10/7/24
FLOORS, RISKS, & POTENTIAL UPSIDE
10/4/24
HEDGE PRESSURE
10/3/24
GRAINS TAKE A STEP BACK
10/2/24
CORN & WHEAT CONTINUE RUN
10/1/24
CORN & WHEAT POST MULTI-MONTH HIGHS
9/30/24