Monday May 9th Opening Grain Market Comments- Firmer calls on wheat, corn, and soybeans
Markets are called better this a.m. on a little dead cat bounce, supportive overnight session, and supportive/mixed outside markets.
In the overnight session old crop corn was up 10, new crop corn was up 6, beans where up 7-9 cents, KC wheat was up 16, MPLS wheat was up 19-20, and CBOT wheat was up 17. At 9:25 outside markets have European wheat up about 5 %, crude oil is up a little over 2.00 a barrel, equities are unchanged, and the US dollar is firmer up 225 on the September at 75.775.
The big thing out there is weather this a.m. as 100 degree plus weather was reported this past weekend in parts of KS and the over done markets we seen last week. The combination of those two and the wet weather in other parts of the US
Basis on wheat feels a little softer for the nearby and the interest is shifting towards deferred slots or at least it feels that way to me. This is probably due to the railroads quickly catching up after not having been in the game at all the past couple of months.
One thing that is weird and will have to change if we are in a bull market is the spreads; the carry is simply too big in wheat and that spread hasn’t been one that typically goes with a bull market.
The other thing to keep in mind is that money flow is probably the simply greatest fundamental out there so it might not matter if it is dry, wet, big crop, small crop; if money wants to flow out (like it did last week). Eventually supply and demand should come to the fore front; but sometimes it is via basis and other things seen in the cash market. So keep in mind that when looking at your marketing decisions.
I did get this out a little late as the markets are now open and we are very strong; wheat is up over 30 in MPLS and KC with corn and beans both over a dime higher.
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