USDA Crop Report Dec 9th
Markets are called weaker this a.m. behind an overall
bearish USDA report. One that was very negative our world fundamentals.
In the overnight session we seen grains mixed with corn up a
penny or two and wheat off a couple pennies. Calls this a.m. range from
5-30 lower on most of the grains.
Here is a recap of the report.
US
Carryover
Friday
Nov
2011-12 2011-12
estimate estimate
Corn
0.848 0.843
Wheat
0.878 0.828
Soybeans
0.230 0.195
Soyoil
2.280 2.080
Soymeal
300,000 300,000
Rice
37.5 37.5
Cotton
3.50 3.80
USDA
World Carryover
Friday Nov
2011-12 2011-12
estimate estimate
Wheat
208.5
202.6
Corn
127.2
121.6
Rice
99.51
100.57
Soybeans
64.5
63.6
Soymeal
8.28
8.75
Soyoil
2.64
2.41
Cotton
57.7
55.0
USDA
World Grain Production
Friday
Nov
2011-12 2011-12
estimate estimate
China
corn 191.8 184.5
South
Africa corn 12.5
12.5
Argentina
corn 29.0 29.0
Australia
wheat 28.3
26.0
Argentina
wheat 14.5
13.0
EU
27 wheat 137.5 137.5
Canada
wheat 25.3 24.2
China
wheat 117.9 117.0
Russia
wheat 56.0 56.0
Ukraine
wheat 22.0 22.0
Brazil
soybeans 75.0
75.0
Argentina
soybeans 52.0
52.0
China
soybeans 13.5 14.0
The biggest negative is probably the wheat carryout for the
US going up 50 million bushels as exports where decreased by 50 million
bushels. Versus estimates by the industry ahead of the report we seen
corn at 848 million bushel carryout versus a 830 ish average trade estimate,
beans at 230 verus about 215 avg guess, and wheat at 878 versus about 830 on
average.
The positive I see on the report despite all of the very
weak opening calls is the fact that many of these numbers where expected.
China raised it’s corn estimate earlier this week, Stats Canada had raised
their estimate, and even the Australian wheat crop was pegged bigger this week.
So personally I am not going to jump all over the very weak opening calls that
some have indicated; I think the news could quickly become old or in a sense
was already old going into the report.
Outside markets are firmer at 9:20 and they could add a
little support.
The one thing that this report should continue to tell us is
the fact that our S & D is overall bearish for the grains, it is increasing
year over year and has really increased versus the tightest we have seen
earlier in the past year or so.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks