opening comments march 22nd
Markets are called mixed to weaker this a.m. behind a choppy
two sided overnight trade; weaker outside markets, and decent export sales.
In the overnight session corn was unchanged, KC wheat was
down 2, MPLS wheat was down 3, CBOT
wheat was unchanged, and beans were down 7 cents. At 9:00 outside markets have the equities
down with the DOW off 50 points, the US dollar is stronger with the cash index
at 79.883, crude oil is off 2.50 a barrel, and European wheat is
unchanged.
Corn came in above trade range estimates and ahead of what
is needed on a per week basis coming in at 33.9 million bushels of old crop corn. Wheat was also above trade estimates and what
is needed on a per week basis to meet present USDA projections as it came in at
19.8 million bushels. Beans where below the
trade estimates but still above what is needed on a per week basis coming in at
13.1 million bushels.
Outside markets presently are not helping the grains at all
as we have equities down, crude down, gold down, and the US dollar up.
Next week we will have a USDA crop report out; the quarterly
stocks and the planting intentions report.
I don’t think the acres planting intentions part is as import as yield
and old crop quarterly stocks probably trumps weather importance for the short
term. For the corn balance sheets if we
get a change like we have seen recently on the quarterly stocks report we could
go any place from a sub 600 million bushel carryout to something over a billion
bushels. So don’t forget to have some
marketing risk management plan in place before next week’s report.
Given that the market does expect us to consolidate a little
bit ahead of the report; but our markets also have a nice tendency to do
exactly the opposite of what most think they will.
Basis feels steady and like it has stopped slipping but at
the same token most ethanol plants have good to great coverage for the next few
months. The only positive basis really
has going for it has been the weak board along with producers getting in the
field as the demand side is a little slow for wheat, corn, and the birdseed
products like milo.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks