Pre-USDA S D Report thoughts - Closing Grain Market Comments 4-9-12

Markets closed mixed to weaker today despite the rather firm start to last night’s session and the US dollar reversing midsession.

Old crop May corn was off 9 cents, July corn was down 11 cents, new crop corn was unchanged, new crop beans were unchanged, old crop beans were off 3 cents, KC wheat was off 2 cents, MPLS wheat was up a penny, CBOT wheat was up 5, the equity markets where weaker with the DOW off 130 points, crude was about a dollar weaker, and the US dollar is presently in the red by about 100 at 79.785 on the cash index.

A rather disappointing day for the grains leading up to the Supply and Demand report that will be out in the a.m.; especially disappointing considering our highs last night. 

The corn price action in spreads was a little weird today; we seen the front month May gain on the July but both of the old crop months lost plenty of ground to the new crop.  Perhaps the new crop was a little firmer on cold weather scares for some of the emerging crop; also noted was freeze scare in parts of SRW or CBOT wheat areas.  It doesn’t appear that any known damage was really done but it does help the bears remember that we probably won’t have a perfect growing season.

Perhaps part of the price action in the front month spread was due to more rolling from the May to the July; I have seen quite a few exporters roll already and even some local elevators have rolled.

We did have export inspections out this a.m. and they came in mixed; with wheat and beans in line with expectations and  corn below.  Wheat came in at 17.6 million bushels which was in line with what is needed on a per week basis, corn came in at 23.4 which is about 10 million bushel shy of what is needed on a per week basis to meet present USDA projections, and beans came in at 26.4 which is more than double what is needed on a per week basis.

The corn number has to be disappointing and leaves a little risk open for tomorrow’s USDA report.  This is 4 weeks in a row of not hitting the needed per week number to meet present projections and we have some in the market looking for an increase in exports.  I have to be a little cautious thinking that happens tomorrow.

A recap of trade estimates for tomorrow is.

US corn carryout at 720 million bushels versus 801 last month

Soybean carryout in the US at 245 versus 275 last month

Wheat carryout in US at 790 versus 845 last month

World corn carryout at 122.45 million metric tons versus 124.53 last month

Bean carryout in the world at 55.42 versus 57.3 last month

Wheat  carryout in the world at 208.62 versus 209.58 last month

One can see that the market is looking for a cut in carryout for all three of the major crops in both the US and in the world; therein lies our biggest risk.  That we see a neutral or maybe slightly friendly number but sell off because it isn’t as big as the market has penciled in.

The biggest number and most likely to move the market big time will probably be the corn number for the US ending carryout.  The other numbers will be important but corn is still king and if there isn’t a corn story we are swimming in wheat.

There is a chance that a corn carryout at expectations or estimates moves the market rather strongly because of what happened last year.  In that our April S & D didn’t change from the March despite the bullish March stocks report.  Enough have made comments about that and we have a large enough range in the estimates that a number of 720 on the corn carryout could get the bulls fired up.

I think the real risk is probably to the downside on beans; but heck I have thought that for some time now.  But at these levels and with the ownership that the funds have the risk is becoming more real.  Keep in mind beans are within last year’s highs; while corn and wheat are not even close.  Plus the bean story hasn’t exactly turned out to be a bunch of old crop demand.  It has been some; but more so the bean story is a small South American crop that should lead to more demand for us come new crop time.  So a break to me just makes sense and probably provides the charts with a little heath.  After all markets that go straight up usually go straight down; I would much rather see a slow steady uptrend versus a straight up market. 

I read some place on twitter recently to buy fear and sell greed.  To me it feels like the beans are near the greed stage of the marketing cycle.  I would say that winter wheat feels like it close the fear cycle as there has been a lot of talk lately in regards to a big crop down south and the big balance sheets that it has in the US as well as the world.  Now corn………….that one feels like new crop is at the fear stage because everyone has penciled in a huge crop on huge acres; which could happen; but really is a long ways from………….and old crop corn…………..well let’s say that I just hope that we are fortunate enough to see a greed stage as if we do that will mean we have finally busted out of the 6-7 month trading range we have been in.

Report is out at 7:30 in the a.m.

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