Closing Comments - USDA Report Preview 1-10-13
Rather choppy trade today ahead of the USDA updated Supply
and Demand report which is out tomorrow January 11th at 11 central
time.
Corn was up 4, beans were off 6, KC wheat was off 5, MPLS
wheat was off a penny, CBOT wheat was off a penny, equity markets closed firmer
with the DOW up 80 points, crude was up around a dollar, gold was firmer, and
the US Dollar got hammered.
Overall a little disappointing day for the grains. Corn up for the 4th session in a
row was good; but to see beans weaker and wheat weaker despite the US getting a
little Egypt wheat business and very weak US dollar has to be disappointing to
say the least.
As mentioned above we get do a cargo of wheat business with
Egypt but so did Canada. One positive
from this is that Egypt who just a few days ago claimed to be covered for the
next several months came in and bought.
Perhaps showing that “cheap wheat” does attract a little demand?
Exports sales this a.m. where horrible for corn at only
500,000 bushels; the bean and wheat number was also on the soft side of
expectations.
As we go forward it really comes down to tomorrow’s
report. One thing that should make one a
little nervous is the fact that we have had a few up days in a row for corn and
the bias of the market seems to be one that is looking for a bullish
report. I would not have said this a
week or two ago; but it really feels like the market is looking for a bullish report;
so that adds in the risk of is the report bullish enough?
I do not think the same thing can be said for wheat and beans;
and no one is really looking for any big bullish surprises for them so perhaps
that is where the bullish surprises happen?????
I am not going to give any more reasons to be bullish or
bearish into the report. Rather just lay
out the numbers and say as far as marketing goes the thing one needs to look at
doing is getting themselves comfortable.
If you haven’t done that and want to do something ahead of the report
please give us a call.
Thanks
Below is from the Van Trump Report and it shows the
estimates for Friday’s USDA report which will be out at 11:00 central time
January 11th.
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2012-13 Final January Production Corn & Soybeans
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||||
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|
Todays #
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Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
Total Crop
|
???
|
10.725
|
10.650
|
10.325 - 10.800
|
|
Corn
Yield Avg
|
???
|
122.3
|
122.6
|
121.3 - 125.0
|
|
Harvested
Acres
|
???
|
87.721
|
86.89
|
84.56 - 87.72
|
|
Soybean
Crop
|
???
|
2.971
|
2.993
|
2.935 - 3.104
|
|
Soy Yield
Avg
|
???
|
39.3
|
39.6
|
38.9 - 41.0
|
|
Harvested
Acres
|
???
|
75.693
|
75.56
|
74.70 - 75.90
|
|
2012-13 January Ending Stocks
|
||||
|
|
New #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
0.647
|
0.647
|
0.489 - 0.760
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.130
|
0.135
|
0.114 - 0.186
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
0.754
|
0.741
|
0.637 - 0.792
|
|
December 1st Quarterly Stocks |
||||
|
|
New #
|
Dec 1 Last Year
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
9.647
|
8.219
|
8.000 - 8.750
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
2.370
|
1.981
|
1.800 - 2.100
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
1.633
|
1.684
|
1.553 - 1.750
|
|
USDA Winter Wheat Acres |
||||
|
|
New #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Total
Winter
|
???
|
41.324
|
42.585
|
41.700 - 44.650
|
|
Hard Red
|
???
|
29.863
|
30.296
|
29.900 - 31.000
|
|
Soft Red
|
???
|
8.120
|
8.898
|
8.217 - 10.000
|
|
White
|
???
|
3.350
|
3.474
|
3.300 - 3.920
|
|
South American Production Numbers |
||||
|
|
New #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
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Range of Guesses
|
|
Brazil
Corn
|
???
|
70.0
|
70.4
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69.0 - 72.7
|
|
Argentine
Corn
|
???
|
27.5
|
25.9
|
23.0 - 27.5
|
|
Brazil
Soy
|
???
|
81.0
|
81.9
|
78.9 - 84.0
|
|
Argentine
Soy
|
???
|
55.0
|
54.6
|
52.5 - 57.0
|
Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)