Closing Comments 3-26-2013
Markets closed mixed today behind pre-report trading, firm
outside markets, and some weather concerns.
Corn was down 3 cents a bushel, soybeans were up 11 cents a
bushel, KC wheat was up a dime, MPLS wheat was up a nickel, CBOT wheat was up 4,
the equity market bounced with the DOW up 112 points (looks like the bull
market is back on), the US dollar was near unchanged with the cash US Dollar index
at 82.858, and crude was up 1.40 a barrel.
Not a bad day for the grains; with a lot of strength for
wheat seen in the finally 5-10 minutes of trading. Corn even though it didn’t manage to close
positive did close a nickel off of its lows; all in all not a bad day; but
technically a day that seemed to help markets consolidate ahead of a report. I view the consolidation happening at some
areas that should allow for a big move one way or another; i.e. right up near
resistance on the wheat/corn charts; so Thursday’s report will either help the
charts look like a clear breakout should the report be bullish or a nice head
fake or failure at resistance. It is
nice how charts and fundamentals seem to tie up together; it’s just too bad
that we don’t also have clear direction whether we will fail at resistance or break
threw and make another leg higher.
A couple news items out today besides the pre-report talk
included freeze talk with some possible damage done to some of the HRW wheat in
areas that have it jointing such as parts of OK; overall it doesn’t appear that
a lot of major damage was done; but it is one of those things that really might
not be known until the combines hit. Temps
are expected to warm up next week; but that doesn’t mean we won’t have another
freeze scare at some point in the future.
Talk that Egypt is very low on wheat inventory has also been
around; but it also sounds like they won’t be in the market buying for a couple
of months.
Basis is weaker or at least feels weaker for corn and winter
wheat. I had a train out today that was
bid 10 cents less then it was a weak ago despite very similar quality. Also still not finding much for corn bids and
the bids that I have seen are rather soft on basis.
The birdseed market felt a little better today with a little
more interest; but still overall on the slow side.
Report is out on Thursday; I will be out of the office the
next couple of days but Jordan, Dan, and Kevin or your local station managers
will be around if anyone is looking to take a little risk off the table ahead
of the report. My bias is a little
negative corn and friendly wheat; mainly because of the fact everyone seems to
be bullish corn and I think wheat has had decent demand as of late. I also think that perhaps we used a little
more wheat for feed and thus less corn; but I guess only time will tell.
After the report it really feels like old crop corn will go
to trading demand as will old crop soybeans.
Wheat should really become a weather market as should new crop
corn/beans. How important weather will
be will depend on how many acres we get; the more acres the less important
weather will be and vice versa. The
other thing we will need to watch will be money flow and the funds.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks