Morning Market Thoughts 3-14-2013 - Great Wheat Export sales
Markets are showing a little bounce this a.m. behind great
wheat export sales.
At 9:15 we have soybeans still in the red down 2, but corn
is up 2, KC wheat is up 5, MPLS wheat is up 3, and CBOT wheat is up 6 cents a
bushel. Outside markets have the stock
market bouncing with the DOW up 60 points, crude up about a quarter, gold off 3
bucks an ounce, and the US dollar back to about unchanged which is a couple
hundred points off of it’s highs.
We did have ethanol production numbers out yesterday and
they were mixed. Ethanol production was
off slightly which was a little disappointing because margins have improve a
little bit for that industry. Stocks however
dropped and that was supportive.
We did have export sales out this a.m. and old crop wheat
was at 32.6 million bushels which is well above the 12.2 we need on a per week
basis to hit present projections. We
also had good new crop sales.
Corn was not anything special coming in at 11.1 which is
slightly below the 12.6 million we need on a per week basis. But in line with estimates.
The soy products were light; but soybeans had good sales at
24.2 million bushels; while we only need about 4.6 per week to hit present USDA
projections. The soybean number isn’t
off the charts; but it is also a pace that if continued would really tighten
things up.
Corn basis is softer; I can’t seem to find much nearby
homes. Yet outlook for basis remains
good for later slots.
We continue to hear of lots of wheat going into feed down south. Yesterday I heard of 12-13 shuttles; some out
of the delivery houses.
Wheat basis is supported a little bit from the strong
exports; but it is hard not to be wanting to sell basis at these levels. Especially if the board does decide to
bounce. We just have too much
wheat. Some of the nearby markets have
went from firm to no bid; as rail roads have had small improvements and some
mills are really plugged. But we are
also nearing spring work and that typically takes away a little supply and
gives a little support to basis.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.