Morning Market Thoughts 3-6-2013
Markets are a little weaker this a.m.
As of 9:10 corn is off 7 cents, KC wheat is off 8 cents,
MPLS wheat is off 7 cents, and CBOT wheat is off 9 cents. Wheat is flirting with the lows from earlier
this week as well as last week’s lows; if those level’s don’t hold we will be
making more new 9 month lows. Outside
markets have a strong US dollar, equities continue their strength with the DOW
up over 14,300 up 45 points at new all time highs once again, crude is down
about 60 cents and gold is up slightly.
Many offices in Washington DC are closed today due to a
snowstorm. This might delay the release
of some of the energy data including ethanol numbers that would normally be out
shortly this a.m. Maybe it will help out
some birdseed demand? But that remains
to be seen.
Wheat is leading the way down today as moisture is called
for in most of the HRW growing areas this weekend and into early next week.
Also giving wheat a little pressure is the India government who
is suppose to decide on Thursday if they are going to allow an additional
export of 5 MMT tons of wheat via private companies.
Ukraine also approved additional wheat exports, someplace
between 300k approved and 500k expected.
It sounds like S Korea bought 69k tones of S. American
corn. Not that the US expects to be
getting much export business as we really don’t have the corn to sell; but
still it is a headline and not a positive one; at least not positive to the
funds.
USDA report is out on Friday. The below is a run down from the Van Trump
report as to estimates.
|
US Inventory 2013
|
||||
|
|
Todays #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
0.632
|
0.643
|
0.560 - 0.909
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.125
|
0.120
|
0.110 - 0.130
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
0.691
|
0.704
|
0.647 - 0.754
|
|
Crop Reserve Estimates 2012/13 |
||||
|
|
Todays #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
118.04
|
117.46
|
115.50 - 120.0
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
59.46
|
59.31
|
59.31
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
176.73
|
176.53
|
176.53
|
|
South American Production Numbers |
||||
|
|
Todays #
|
Previous USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Brazil
Corn
|
???
|
72.5
|
72.2
|
68.0 - 73.5
|
|
Argentine
Corn
|
???
|
27.0
|
25.7
|
24.0 - 27.0
|
|
Brazil
Soy
|
???
|
83.5
|
83.2
|
81.0 - 84.0
|
|
Argentine
Soy
|
???
|
53.0
|
51.2
|
48.5 - 53.0
|
I have seen some signs that basis feels a little softer with
an increased movement noticed. Gulf corn
basis is said to be down a penny or two and many of our local ethanol plants
seem to have very good nearby coverage.
The only way most of them will buy anything for March or April is if
they can find someone that already owes them corn to push that delivery back to
later. Bottom line is nearby coverage is
rather good; the real need is later slots.
Besides the USDA report on Friday; CONAB will have some
estimates out for South America production tomorrow.
One good thing that we have seen for wheat demand as of late
is a lot of wheat moving into feed ration’s in the south. I also seen a rumor of one ethanol plant
starting to buy some SRW wheat.
Don’t forget about our harvest for hunger food drive
program. Please give us a call if you
want to help us raise some meals. Don’t
forget that CHS is matching.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks