Opening Comments 6-3-2013
Markets are called better this a.m. behind a very firm
overnight session lead by soybeans.
In the overnight session New Crop November soybeans were up
25 cents a bushel, old crop beans up 25-27 cents a bushel, KC wheat up 4, MPLS
wheat up 6, corn up 5-6 cents, and CBOT wheat was up 6 cents. At 8:20 outside markets have a US Dollar down
slightly at 83.270 on the cash index, crude is up 65 cents, Gold is about
unchanged, and equity futures are pointing towards a positive 70 point start
for the DOW.
Weather; more concern that we are losing acres and yield is
the story this a.m. The concern seems to
have shifted a little from corn focus to soybean focus. But bottom line is guys are looking at
weather and the cooler and wet forecasts are not allowing things to get
done. Thus we have a little more weather
premium being built into the market.
Plus we also continue to have very strong soybean meal demand.
The question should be do we have enough weather premium
built in? Or do we need to continue our
little rally that has seen about a buck and a quarter rally for new crop
soybeans and 60 cents for new crop corn.
If you look at per acre basis that is rather significant. $30 to $100 bucks or more depending on yield. Perhaps enough of a rally to reward the rally
a little bit for those that are fortunate enough to have things in the ground? The trend is your friend and if I had plenty
already sold that I was comfortable I wouldn’t get over aggressive; but for
those that feel they are undersold this is the best spot we have had in months
to make some catch up sales.
Plus fundamentally plenty of arguments are out there on the balance
sheets. Some ideas are that we have yet
to make any major changes to our carryout numbers. I guess only time and mother nature will really
know the production answers. For the
demand side we do know that we have super strong old crop demand but many
question the present new crop demand outlook.
Many ideas are that if the USDA lowers production they will lower demand
similar. Bottom line is things look
friendly for prices today; but weather markets change in a hurry.
As for news; this a.m. we will have export shipments
out. Wheat has been strong lately with
corn and beans lagging. This afternoon
we will have a crop progress out and we might see the corn conditions. Ideas are for the bean crop to be about 60-65%
planted and the corn crop to be around 90-92% planted with 50-65% of the crop
in G/E condition versus 77% last year.
It sounds like Japan will be holding back shipments on some
US white wheat that they had bought; this is from the GMO story out last
week. So far testing has been negative.
We should see more harvest results from some areas down
south this week. But some areas are getting
some moisture that will push things back.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.