opening comments before usda report 6-28-13
Well not much to say this a.m.
It’s just a hurry up and wait for the USDA report out at 11
a.m. central time. Overnight markets
were choppy and fairly close to home; July corn ended unchanged, December corn
was down 2, KC was up 1, MPLS was up 2, CBOT wheat was up 2, July beans up 3,
and November soybeans were up 2. Outside
markets have gold down another 20 bucks an ounce under 1200 now at 1192 an
ounce, crude is up a quarter a barrel, the US dollar is about unchanged with
the Cash index at 82.88, and the stock market futures are pointing towards a
lower opening with the DOW futures off 52 points.
It’s really just about the USDA report today. Now if it is a non-event the market will
continue to focus on weather. Most are
saying weather is ideal; but I am not even going to go down the weather road
debate. I will leave that up to the agronomists
and traders.
The one thing we have to worry a little bit about this
report is living up to the expectations.
Most everyone is expecting a bullish old crop number for corn and
soybean stocks. Will it be bullish
enough? Most everyone is also looking
for a decline in acres; will they decline enough?
Here is recap of the estimates.
USDA June Acreage Worksheet
|
|
June #
|
March #
|
2012 Final
|
Ave. Trade Guess
|
Range Estimates
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
97.282
|
97.155
|
95.313
|
94.200 - 96.900
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
77.126
|
77.198
|
77.933
|
77.100 - 79.240
|
|
All Wheat
|
???
|
56.440
|
55.736
|
55.902
|
55.200 - 56.400
|
|
Spring W
|
???
|
12.701
|
12.289
|
12.132
|
11.700 - 12.700
|
|
Durum W
|
???
|
1.751
|
2.123
|
1.699
|
1.550 - 1.800
|
|
|
June #
|
March 1
|
June 1, 2012
|
Ave. Trade Guess
|
Range Estimates
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
5.399
|
3.148
|
2.845
|
2.725 - 2.952
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.999
|
0.667
|
0.442
|
0.413 - 0.500
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
1.234
|
0.743
|
0.745
|
0.718 - 0.781
|
Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives