Opening Grain Market Comments 6-11-2013
Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight
session.
In the overnight session old crop corn was up 2 cents, new
crop corn was up 1 a penny, KC wheat was off ½ of a cent, MPLS wheat was 2
better, July beans ended up 9 cents, November soybeans up a penny a bushel, and
CBOT wheat. Outside markets at 8:15 have
a DOW futures pointing towards a lower 120 point opening, gold is off 17 bucks
an ounce, crude is off 1.60 a barrel, and the US dollar is off about 100 points
with the cash US dollar index at 81.529.
One small positive is that by the time the overnight session
had ended all of the grains had bounce back towards unchanged; 3-5 cents off of
the lows for most of the contracts.
Yesterday afternoon we had a crop condition report and
progress update. Not much for surprises;
below is CHS Hedging recap.
Headlines include corn conditions unchanged at 63%
good/excellent. Corn planting at 95%;
which opens the door to more of the market asking the question if rain makes
grain?
Soybean planting at 71% which was on the low end of estimates. Spring wheat planting at 87% with conditions
slipping 2% in the G/E slots.
The focus now seems to be on weather and the USDA Supply and
Demand report which is out at 11:00 central time on Wednesday. For weather we do see some areas with some
heat in the forecast. But overall weather
still looks to be a wild card to me.
As for the USDA report; probably a wait and see market right
now.
Here is latest estimates; via the Van Trump Report.
|
US Ending Stocks 2012/13
|
||||
|
|
June #
|
May USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
0.759
|
0.759
|
0.684 - 0.919
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.125
|
0.121
|
0.080 - 0.140
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
0.731
|
0.733
|
0.715 - 0.751
|
|
US Ending Stocks 2013/14 |
||||
|
|
June #
|
May USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
2.004
|
1.795
|
1.175 - 2.200
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.265
|
0.268
|
0.185 - 0.344
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
0.670
|
0.640
|
0.501 - 0.713
|
|
Global Ending Stocks 2012/13 |
||||
|
|
June #
|
May USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
125.430
|
125.975
|
124.500 - 128.200
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
62.460
|
62.105
|
60.500 - 63.000
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
180.170
|
180.395
|
179.800 - 181.395
|
|
Global Ending Stocks 2013/14
|
||||
|
|
June #
|
May USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
154.630
|
149.571
|
141.510 - 155.200
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
74.960
|
73.512
|
68.200 - 76.000
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
186.380
|
185.144
|
179.800 - 188.500
|
|
US Wheat Production |
||||
|
|
June #
|
May USDA #
|
Avg Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
All Wheat
|
???
|
2.057
|
2.034
|
1.872 - 2.109
|
|
All
Winter
|
???
|
1.486
|
1.467
|
1.401 - 1.523
|
|
Hard Red
Winter
|
???
|
0.768
|
0.752
|
0.676 - 0.815
|
|
Soft Red
Winter
|
???
|
0.501
|
0.505
|
0.492 - 0.517
|
|
White
Winter
|
???
|
0.217
|
0.210
|
0.200 - 0.217
|
Not a ton of other news out this a.m. I did see one comment about India wheat being
dropped to 87 MMT from the current 94.88 MMT.
One positive when we look at the world wheat picture. But the world wheat situation doesn’t seem to
be a super bull market. Most of the comments
seem to be that we have had good weather in plenty of wheat growing areas in the
world. Ideas are not that the US will be
ran over with export business. That
demand component is really missing from this market.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks