Opening Grain Market Comments 6-25-13 - USDA report guesses
Markets are called mixed to better this a.m. behind a firmer
overnight session; which seemed to be more of a dead cat bounce after yesterdays
pressure.
In the overnight session July corn was up 4 cents, December
corn was up a penny, KC wheat was up 2-3 cents, MPLS wheat was up 3, CBOT wheat
was up 4, July soybeans up 4, and November soybeans up 7 cents. At 8:15 outside markets have a US Dollar
about unchanged with the cash index at 82.46, crude up 50 cents, gold up 6
bucks, and the stock market looks to start firmer with the DOW futures up about
110 points.
First off the big news is still to come later this week in
the form of an updated acre and quarterly stocks report. Below are the estimates.
Here is from the Van Trump report as I thought he said it
very well
Tables also from the Van Trump report
USDA June Acreage Worksheet
|
|
June #
|
March #
|
2012 Final
|
Ave. Trade Guess
|
Range Estimates
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
97.282
|
97.155
|
95.313
|
94.200 - 96.900
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
77.126
|
77.198
|
77.933
|
77.100 - 79.240
|
|
All Wheat
|
???
|
56.440
|
55.736
|
55.902
|
55.200 - 56.400
|
|
Spring W
|
???
|
12.701
|
12.289
|
12.132
|
11.700 - 12.700
|
|
Durum W
|
???
|
1.751
|
2.123
|
1.699
|
1.550 - 1.800
|
|
|
June #
|
March 1
|
June 1, 2012
|
Ave. Trade Guess
|
Range Estimates
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
5.399
|
3.148
|
2.845
|
2.725 - 2.952
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.999
|
0.667
|
0.442
|
0.413 - 0.500
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
1.234
|
0.743
|
0.745
|
0.718 - 0.781
|
The thing that stands out to me is the fact that we are
expecting 303 million bushels less for corn then a year ago and expecting soybeans
225 million bushels less than a year ago.
Seems aggressive from the trade considering last year’s corn carryout
and how and when the rationing happened.
Lots of rationing occurred last summer.
Don’t get me wrong I think this year’s market is much
tighter then last for both corn and soybeans.
But I have to wonder if the USDA will have a different time table as to
when we use the product. Keep in mind
last year we had the drought already happening.
We also had the benefit of an early fall harvest. Doesn’t look to be that way this year.
If the average trade estimates are correct things could
really get interesting for old crop corn and soybeans.
As for the acre side of thing; most think we get some sort
of asterisk *. How the market interprets
what the USDA says might be more important then what they actually say.
The other big thing I see out there is the present trend of
our crops. Based on the weekly crop
condition report. The corn crop started off
7% less in the G/E this year compared to last.
But now this year’s crop has 9% more in the G/E then it did last
year. That trend is very important and
if it continues it doesn’t spell out higher prices.
That’s about all I have today; I will be out at the Oahe
Farm and Ranch show talking on grain marketing at 11:30 central time.