Opening Comments 7-17-2013
Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session as we
continue to trade the weather forecasts.
In the overnight session corn was down 3-4 cents, KC wheat
was up a penny, Soybeans were down 1-5 cents, MPLS wheat was up 3, and CBOT
wheat was up 1. Outside markets have the
US dollar softer by 100 points or so at 82.40 on the cash index, gold is about
unchanged at 1290 an ounce, and crude is about unchanged at 105.85 a
barrel. The stock market looks to open
up about 30 points higher based on the DOW futures.
For the grains it is and has been about a couple
things. First off the funds have been
rather short some of the grains so we have seen some hints of short covering
the past few days. The headline driving
some of the short covering or maybe even flat out buying has been weather and
crop conditions. There is a concern with
weather and pollination of corn. So the
two big things are the funds and weather as it relates to production possibilities. I have seen production possibilities all over
the board and that headline to have the funds buy….buy……buy……….hasn’t been seen
lately.
The other big headline I seen yesterday was ethanol Rin’s
out to new all time prices. Ethanol
plants and corn basis have been everywhere lately; I have heard of a couple
saying they are covered until new crop; while I have seen others get very aggressive
on bids. Very volatile game right now;
watch for lots of games to be played for both corn and soybeans. On the bean market I have seen on processor
bid things with a 50-60 cent inverse for beans from now to August; while I have
seen another bid it with a small 4-5 cent carry.
Things for old crop are all over the board for a lot of
grains; in my opinion the old crop situations don’t seem to be solved. But each day that we get closer to new crop
the old crop situations get closer to being solved.
Today we will have ethanol numbers out; later this a.m. Watch that for direction.
I did get an email today from a buyer indicating some inverted
protein scales for some HRW in some areas.
Discounting 13 pro. Not sure how
that will develop but it was interesting to see.
It sounds like China is in trying to buy some more wheat; I seen
some talk of 500 tmt Australian wheat this morning. I read something that it might be milling
wheat; which would be good.
Bottom line is that China might be one bullish card or at
the least a wild card that could help our prices. Is it enough to keep prices supported? Or trigger fund buying? I guess that remains to be seen.
We will have our marketing meeting in Onida at 3:00 this
afternoon.
Thanks