Opening Comments - USDA report thoughts
Markets are called mixed to weaker this a.m. behind a weaker
overnight session and ideas that some of the ridging concerns are eroding in
some of the forecasts.
In the overnight session corn was down 2-3 cents, KC wheat
was up 3, MPLS wheat was up 4, CBOT wheat was up 3, and November soybeans were
down 4. At 8:10 outside markets have a
US dollar up 300-400 points at 83.10 on the cash index, crude is up 50 cents at
105.40, gold is down 4 bucks at 1276 an ounce, and it looks like an unchanged
start for the stock markets with the DOW futures up 4-5 points.
It was all about the USDA report for about an hour yesterday
and then the market quickly went back to trading the weather as it probably
should.
Here is a recap from the report; this is from the Van Trump
report.
|
|
July Est.
|
June Est.
|
Avg. Trade Guess
|
Trade Range
|
|
2012/13
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
0.729
|
0.769
|
0.725
|
0.537 - 0.800
|
|
Soybeans
|
0.125
|
0.125
|
0.121
|
0.104 - 0.135
|
|
2013/14
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat
|
0.576
|
0.659
|
0.632
|
0.566 - 0.690
|
|
Corn
|
1.959
|
1.949
|
1.896
|
1.618 - 2.338
|
|
Soybeans
|
0.295
|
0.265
|
0.263
|
0.164 - 0.329
|
|
|
July Est.
|
June Est.
|
Avg. Trade Guess
|
Trade Range
|
|
2012/13
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
123.57
|
124.310
|
124.222
|
122.600 - 127.590
|
|
Soybeans
|
61.52
|
61.210
|
60.938
|
|
|
Wheat
|
174.47
|
179.870
|
179.344
|
177.000 - 181.030
|
|
2013/14
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
151.00
|
151.830
|
152.404
|
149.700 - 158.897
|
|
Soybeans
|
74.12
|
73.690
|
73.557
|
69.486 - 75.000
|
|
Wheat
|
172.38
|
181.250
|
180.293
|
175.000 - 183.000
|
|
|
July Est.
|
June Est.
|
2012 Totals
|
Avg. Trade Guess
|
Trade Range
|
|
All Wheat
|
2.114
|
2.080
|
2.269
|
2.070
|
2.015 - 2.140
|
|
All
Winter
|
1.54
|
1.509
|
1.654
|
1.507
|
1.454 - 1.555
|
|
Hard
Red
|
0.793
|
0.781
|
1.004
|
0.773
|
0.730 - 0.808
|
|
Soft
Red
|
0.539
|
0.509
|
0.420
|
0.525
|
0.506 - 0.552
|
|
White
|
0.211
|
0.219
|
0.222
|
0.214
|
0.199 - 0.220
|
|
Spring
|
0.571
|
NA
|
0.542
|
0.499
|
0.452 - 0.540
|
|
Durum
|
0.058
|
NA
|
0.082
|
0.063
|
0.055 - 0.080
|
Most called it a non-event.
Which maybe it was; but I seen a couple things of interest on it. First off the China 2013/14 carryout numbers
for corn and wheat. Corn at 54.8 MMT
versus 60.9 this present year and wheat at 57.2 versus 61.8 in last month’s
forecast. It seems like we have a
smoking gun where China and our grains are concerned. They have been in for both wheat and corn
lately and when you look at SRW sold we are just starting the marketing year
and commitments are off of the charts.
The second thing is the wheat numbers. Very friendly; friendly enough for us to
rally without corn or beans helping?
Probably not? But could wheat
maybe add some support to the row crops?
Potentially. I put it this way it
wheat has had a heck of lot bigger carryout numbers the past few years and much
higher prices. But wheat carryout is
just one component that goes into helping project a price.
The other thing that stood out to me on the report was the
USDA increasing both corn and soybean new crop carryout’s. Both still over two times the present old
crop carryout. When you carryout’s
double to nearly triple you can not consider that bullish fundamentally. Now it doesn’t mean we have to go down; but
it is why some are very bearish. Looking
deeper into those numbers you see that new crop corn supply went down slightly
via a smaller starting spot with smaller old crop stocks and few harvested acres. But the USDA took off more demand than then supply
slipped.
I am concerned in the future that if we do see supply or
production slip that the USDA will simply curve demand and thus keep our balance
sheet projections fairly big. At least
over the next few months.
Yield left unchanged isn’t a major surprise and it is what
they typically do and probably should do.
We have had the weekly crop conditions show a strong up trend in
conditions but we have many that are also thinking conditions are over
stated. The reality is that our yields
will be determined over the next few weeks/months. We probably shouldn’t even have a production
number before August because it is simply using trend line methods that seem to
be broke when you consider the fringe acres that have been added. These acres added for corn over the past few
years are acres that typically hit home runs or strike out. It adds plenty of volatility to our yield
projections.
Longer term the report to me still opens the question to
what is fair price for 13 or 14 billion bushel production? What about a 2 billion bushel carryout with
demand 10-14 billion? I don’t think we
know the answer to these questions. I
think proper risk management is warranted; but for me to say that if we hit a 2
billion bushel carryout with a 14 billion bushel crop that we are going down to
4 bucks or 3 bucks; just isn’t known. I
have no good info to know how the funds could react should thinks actually
shape out like some have predicted. We
could have a couple dollar downside risk or we might already be more than fair
priced. Way too many components and moving factors to
have a good solid pinpoint price. The
only thing one can really do is realize the potential risks and rewards; and
how human emotion tends to over move our markets. We could see things much lower or higher than
most think.
The things to watch going forward will be weather. Eventually we will have to start watching
demand; but for now it is all about determining what our supply is.
We are still searching for a reason to get the funds
involved and long the grains.
The July contracts do expire at noon today; watch to see if
things get explosive for corn or beans.
How tight does the cash market or big boys think things are? Basis has been a big moving target for both
of these commodities and probably continues.
Sunflower market feels soft with just too many flowers
trying to move too quickly.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks