Grain Market Comments 5-20-14
Grain markets are mixed this morning after a choppy mixed
overnight session that saw corn unchanged to up 2 cents, KC wheat off 2 cents,
MPLS wheat off 2-3, CBOT wheat off 2, and beans up ½ to down 1 ½. At 8:00 outside markets have crude down about
60 cents, gold off 3 bucks an ounce, DOW mini futures pointing towards a
slightly softer open, and the US Dollar near unchanged.
It has been a little bit of a broken record lately; ideal
weather for the majority of the corn belt; with most of the crop in the ground
the focus or headline has been rain makes grain. Corn and wheat have took most of the
pressure; while beans still have a very tight old crop situation that maybe
hasn’t been resolved.
The positive thing for our markets in general has been solid
demand. Yesterday ethanol numbers where
supportive and came in above what we need to hit USDA estimates. We have also seen corn basis firmer, corn
spreads firmer; both of which should eventually lead to a bounce in the board.
The wheat situation really hasn’t changed much fundamentally
over the past few weeks but prices sure have.
The crop down south hasn’t exactly turned around; yes many parts of had
some rain but so far crop conditions haven’t improved; I guess we will see what
happens on Mondays crop progress/condition report. But many think the rain was a little late to
help the crop much. That rain system
wasn’t really what put the pressure on the wheat market; that pressure had
started long before that; it didn’t help however. The pressure from wheat came from the world
situation along a very overbought situation that had now turned into a very
oversold situation. The funds and our
markets in general seem to be really good at over doing both up moves and down
price moves.
Locally this weekend our railroad does change hands. We will now be served by the RCPE railroad;
which stands for Rapid City, Pierre, Eastern.
It is owned by the GWRR; we look forward to the changes and even though
we might not always get the cars we want the communication should be much
better. That is very important; better communication
so you our producers can make better decisions, as well as the buyers. So welcome RCPE; we look forward to working
with you.
Weather forecasts still indicate that there could be some
possible issues with PP in some of the Northern States. When I look at the forecast maps I do become
friendly sunflowers; but that doesn’t mean sunflowers can go up without the
help of bean oil. I think the pressure
on bean oil lately is one of the reasons the birdseed buyers haven’t shown a
lot of interest. Many are very bearish
prices for corn, beans, bean oil, wheat …….etc.
So many getting so bearish grains in general could
eventually lead to a bounce; hopefully bigger then what is deserved
fundamentally. But we still need a catalyst
to help change charts around and lead to money flowing in.
We did have export sales out this a.m………..here is the Van
Trump take on those.
· Corn sales reported at 621,300 MT for
2013-14 and 90,900 MT for 2014-15. Trade was looking for a 13/14 number
between 300,000 to 500,000 and 14/15 number between 150,000 to 350,000. Last
week sales were reported at 507,900 MT for 2013-14 and 62,500 MT for
2014-15.
· Soybeans sales reported at 62,300 MT for
2013-14 and 821,100 MT for 14-15. Trade was looking for a 13/14 number
between -100,000 to +100,000 and 14/15 number between 500,000 to 700,000. Last
week sales were reported at 164,400 MT for 2013-14 and 451,200 MT 2014-15.
· Wheat sales reported at -52,400 MT for 2013-14
and 531,500 MT for 2014-15. Trade was looking for a 13/14 number between
0 to 200,000 and 14/15 number between 200,000 and 400,000. Last week sales were
reported at 142,200 MT for 2013-14 and 209,800 MT for 2014-15.
For more market information check out the below.
This is from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities
This below is from CHS Hedging; Morning Highlights
Morning Highlights
By Ami L Heesch
- Grain and
energy markets mostly weaker this morning. US$ and gold are weaker,
while CD$ slightly firmer.
- Crop
progress and conditions report out Monday afternoon.
- Goldman
Roll begins next Friday.
- Updated US
and world balance sheets to be released Wednesday, June 11.
- The Corn
market traded lower overnight on mostly favorable weather conditions for
the newly seeded crop. The December contract appears to dictate market
direction.
- Weekly
export sales estimate: 450-850tmt.
- Weekly
crop conditions are expected to be 60-70% G/E on Monday afternoon’s
report.
- Spreads:
Mostly firmer on lack of selling interest, improving cash markets and
decent demand. N/U 1 cent firmer at a 7 ¼ cent inverse, N/Z 1 ½
firmer at an 8 cent inverse, U/Z ½ cent firmer at a ¾ cent inverse and the
Z/N narrowed slightly to a 21 ½ cent carry.
Oilseeds
- The soy
complex traded both sides, with the July failing to hold above $15.00 and
the November contract unable to push through $12.50.
- Weekly
export sales estimates: 400-800tmt for beans, 150-350tmt for meal and
0-35tmt for soyoil.
- Planting
progress is expected to be 75-85% complete
- August
palm oil closed down 38 at 2423 ringgit. China bean market was weaker
overnight while soymeal was a bit firmer.
Wheat
- The wheat
market traded lower overnight on technical weakness and thoughts of a big
SRW crop being harvested. Today marks the last trading day for the 2013-14
marketing year (for wheat).
- Weekly
export sales estimate: 200-600tmt.
- Spring
wheat planting progress should be 80-85% complete. ND and MN should
be 70-72% complete as well. Continued wet conditions is slowing planting
in the far northern areas.
- There has
been significant basis depreciation in the KC and Mpls spot markets this
week.
- Weather
conditions remain mostly good for the US and Europe but there are concerns
about dryness in parts of Russia.
Grain
Merchandiser
Midwest
Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100
(cell)
605-258-2166
(fax)
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