CORN & WHEAT HOLD LAST WEEK’S LOWS
Overview
Grains were higher most of the week, however on today’s lower action we gave back some of those gains. On the week, corn and wheat were able to close higher while beans were slightly lower.
Weekly Price Change:
🌽 Corn: +15 1/4
🌱 Beans: -9
🌾 Chicago: +26 3/4
🌾 KC: +10
🌾 Minneapolis: +11 1/4
Corn had a 5-week high settlement, while soybeans had a 3-month low settlement.
A week from today we get the October USDA report.
Here are all the price changes for this week:
Weekly Price Change
Effects of US Dollar
The recent rally in the US dollar has been negatively effecting grains and harming our exports. As it has rallied for 12 consecutive weeks now. But at what point does the higher dollar stop putting pressure on prices?
When people think the dollar will continue to go higher, or until it actually goes lower.
From Wright on the Market this morning:
If the dollar index closes above 106.17 today, it will be it's 12 consecutive weekly higher settlement, which would be a record streak. Do 12 weeks make a trend? Yes, and soon buyers of US products (including farm products) will figure out they need to buy ahead now before the dollar goes higher.
Now the dollar closed just shy of 106.17. As it closed sharply lower for the 3rd day in a row. If the dollar continues to break, it will entice money to come back into the grain casino.
From Commodity Trader Brian Wilson:
"Fridays during harvest have to have a 90% chance of breaking. After disappointing numbers at the elevator for whatever reason. Mondays rally in my opinion."
From Mark Gold of Top Third:
I think the move today was overdone. We should be getting close to 40% complete on the corn and bean harvest. We are getting toward the 50% mark where we generally see the hedge activity back off. Some of the analysts are looking for the report to be a little bit bearish. I'm not sure I agree with that, I think production should be down.
Corn
Yesterday, corn reached a new 1-month high and had it's highest close on the board in nearly 2 months (since August 8th).
Today corn had it's highest weekly settlement in 5 weeks.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warned that Argentina corn plantings for 2023-24 could be less than intended if they don’t get some serious rain soon. They went on to say "Rain will be necessary over the next two weeks to meet planting goals."
What's the outlook for the next two weeks?
This is a long term bullish factor for corn.
Bottom line, the big thing to watch for is the USDA report next week.
Last year the report was a nonfactor.
In 2021, the report came out and it was the start of a major rally.
In 2020 it was also the start of a major rally.
Taking a look all the way back to 2010, it was what saved the day from the downfall from the September stocks report.
Guess we will have to see where this year takes us.
Unless we get some unrealistically bearish report, I believe we have put in our harvest lows.
Recommendation……
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Scroll to check out some past updates you would have received.
Check Out Past Updates
10/5/23
UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN CORN
10/4/23
ARE YOU A PRICE MAKER OR PRICE TAKER THIS HARVEST?
10/3/23
CHINA IS BUYING, ARE YOU?
10/2/23
WHY YOU SHOULD BE EXCITED ABOUT TODAY’S RALLY
10/1/23