ELECTION & USDA NEXT WEEK

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Beans still holding August lows

  • Deliveries lighter than exp for beans

  • South America completely caught up

  • Zero threat in SA currently. Real risk

  • Seasonals in our favor

  • Election & USDA next week

  • Usually Nov report not major mover

  • Moisture in plains pressuring wheat

  • Plenty of global wheat issues

  • Watching the spreads

  • Risk with corn first notice day

  • Demand still feels stout

  • Be comfortable with risks

  • What to do marketing wise?

  • Bull flag in wheat? Chart below*

  • Corn find a bottom? Chart below*

  • ALL CHART BREAKDOWNS BELOW*

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CHART BREAKDOWNS

Corn 🌽

The two levels to watch are $4.00 and $4.26

A break above or below decides the direction

But I want to show you why I think we “could” have found a bottom.

Scroll to check out the 4 hour chart and see why.

Here is a 4 hour chart.

Those colorful horizontal lines are retracement levels. They represent how much (%) we have given back of the entire rally from $3.85 to $4.34

In an uptrend, a correction usually bounces between 50% and 61.8% (green box).

We did just that on the recent mini rally.

Now take a look at the next chart.

Again, usually in a simple correction you give back 50% to 61.8% of a rally.

This chart shows the retracements of that recent mini rally.

Again, we are finding support in that green box.

So I think there is a decent chance corn bottoms somewhere in here.

HOWEVER, $4.00 is still the key level to hold.

If we fail to hold $4.00.. there is nothing stopping us from those $3.85 lows.

Beans 🌱

We have a potential double here at $9.76

That level needs to hold.

Looking to the upside, I can’t even consider saying we have put in a bottom until we clear $10.14

Here is a 4 hour chart just to give you a more detailed view.

Trapped in this $10.14 to $9.76 range. So need to break above $10.14

Chicago 🌾

Wheat has a very interesting “potential” setup here.

We found support right at that 61.8% retracement from the $5.22 to $6.17 rally.

Good spot to bounce if we are going to do so.

Take a look at the next chart to see the potential bull flag

Here is a 4 hour chart.

We have a “potential” bull flag.

To confirm a break out, we would need to bust above that dark blue line.

The implied move if it broke out here would be the $6.40-50 range.

I would like to see us hold $5.57

(Make sure to check out KC chart below)

KC Wheat 🌾

Very similar set up in KC.

Implied move would take us to around $6.50 “IF” we broke out.

Again this is a very “potential” move and has not been confirmed.

If we cannot hold $5.61 we could still go quiet a bit lower, as there is little support beneath.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Oct 2nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 30th: 🌽 

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 27th: 🌱 

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 13th: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

May 22nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Sebastian Frost
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