WEEKLY GRAIN NEWSLETTER

This is Jeremey Frost with some not so fearless comments for www.dailymarketminute.com

Another week of not much happening for the grain markets. But was that the real story? Or did the market leave us with some hints of the future?

#AgTwitter

has seen numerous posts regarding the freeze in Argentina that recently happened. Most map reports don’t show that it got cold enough to do much damage. But there are also reports that as many as 5-10 million acres got hit with major damage.

Here is a chart from Twitter showing the possible damage based on maturity.

The thing that we don’t know is what stages and how cold it actually got to. I did see some that think this will add dollars to beans. I think soybeans can go a few dollars higher but I think it will take some time and I don’t know if the market will react that strongly to the freeze, at least not until you see confirmation of damages which according to my sources will take a few days.

I do know that when I googled “Argentina soybean frost damage” what came up was articles from various years. But the date on the articles is what I was interested in. In 2019 one article was from March 12th, but the vast majority of the articles other than ones the past few days were from late March to early May, with the majority being early April.

So I do think that the Argentina soybean crop just went under 30 MMT. If you combine that with Brazil, we will be down year over year, even if Brazil comes in slightly higher then it is presently estimated at. But with all of the acres for us not to have a year over year record really says something.

It tells me we once again won’t have enough supply at the right places.