USDA REPORT: NOW WHAT?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
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Corn acres above estimates but expected
Stock numbers closest to estimates in years
Will have tight situations if yield’s below trend
There is always acre changes after March
The 95 million corn acres looks built in
The market will quickly focus on weather after next USDA report
Effects of fast vs slow planting
Already plenty of talk about drought
Ideally we get a drought weather scare in June for pricing opportunities
World situation is tight for corn & wheat
The US soybean situation could shift friendly
There is a lot of possible friendly bullets
Need to avoid the tariff trainwreck
16 of past 20 years AMJ is the time to price
Brazil corn is $1.00 higher than US corn
Could the funds get behind a tight bean balance sheet?
Why to use options if you’re in that area that gets that drought scare
Bottom 40 states is where corn acres came from
Increased acres should results in lower yield
Why soybeans have firework “potential”
Corn back above the 200-day MA. Bear trap? (Chart below)*
Soybeans above key support (Chart below)*
Wheat market bounced exactly where it needed to (Chart below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
May Corn 🌽
We are back above the 200-day just like the bulls wanted.
We posted a potential double bottom like we talked about last week, leaving a potential bear trap with that wick below trendline support.
We are now back above the 61.8% retracment of the entire rally.
Looks good. Need to continue to build support above the 200-day.
Next major upside objective is still $4.80 as that gives back 50% of the sell off and it was once key support.
Dec Corn 🌽
Chart doesn’t look as friendly as May or July corn, but if they perform Dec will follow even if it underperforms.
We failed the 61.8% of the entire rally but bounced nicely off the 78.6%
Next upside objective is still $4.60
That gives us back 50% of the sell off and it was once big resistance.
May Beans 🌱
Still holding key support.
We failed to close above the 100-day MA.
A close above is what I am waiting for to call a bottom.
Once we do that, it should result in more upside.
We still have this massive potential inverse head & shoulders that has an implied move above $12
The chart looks very solid as long as key support continues to hold. A break below however would look ugly.
Waiting for 1 of 2 things: a close above the 100-day or a break below key support. That will give you the next direction.
My bias leans higher. As I feel beans are undervalued and we have held this support through every bearish factor.
My first longer term target for now is $11.29
Nov Beans 🌱
Exact same set up in Nov, however we did close above the 100-day MA on Friday.
Need to build support above.
Just like May, have a massive inverse head & shoulders.
My current longer term target is $11.10 then $11.50 for now but subject to change
May KC Wheat 🌾
Continuing to bounce exactly where we need to.
We have held this support since August.
Need to continue to do so.
Pretty much just trapped in a massive range between $5.42 to $6.34
Everything else in between is simply noise.
Need to hold here. Next upside objective is $6.34. Then a break above brings on much more upside as it is key resistance.
May Chicago Wheat 🌾
Bouncing right where we needed to at the bottom of this channel.
Simply trapped.
Just like KC, everything in here is noise.
Next upside objective is the top of the channel.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
March 19th: 🐮
Cattle hedge & sell signal.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
3/28/25
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3/27/25
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3/26/25
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