MARKET UPDATE

Futures Prices Close

Overview

Grains rally post USDA report. The report yesterday did nothing. No major changes outside of the Russia crop dropping from 88 to 83 MMT. It was a little disappointing to see no significant cuts to the SA crops.

The focus is now weather and that acres report on June 28th.

This report will be HUGE. One of the biggest of the entire year.

The range for corn acres is 87 to 93 million. That is nearly a 1 billion bushel swing.

Along with acres, we will get the stock numbers. So we will find out how much old crop the US farmer is holding. The less they are holding, the less farmer selling pressure we will see on a rally.

Outside of that report, weather is going to be the other main factor.

Right now, the hot forecasts are starting to catch attention.

For the next week or so much of the corn belt is going to be up to +8 degrees hotter than normal. It is only June..

Temp Anomaly

Maximum Temps

Here is the past 14 days temp anomaly vs the next 14 day from Crop Prophet. A big change coming.

The other big thing we have seen is some demand headlines.

Export sales for corn were strong, on pace to beat the USDA estimates.

We got our first soybean flash sales to China since January.

The last 4 of 5 days we have seen daily sales for beans. This comes off the back of the Brazil tax change, which has helped price US soybeans more competitively to the world market.

What makes these sales even more interesting is the fact that we typically do not see sales of old crop beans during this time. Usually they are nonexistent. This is the time of year where Brazil is usually drowning in beans stealing most of the business.

Direct effect of the tax change, or is Brazil's crop not as massive as advertise? Who knows. If Brazil does have a monster crop, it wouldn’t make sense for China to continue to come buying.

Let's dive into the rest of todays update where we go over everything you need to know..

Today's Main Takeaways

Corn

Today's corn section is longer than normal as we go into a lot of stuff.

The market is finally starting to react to the hot weather we have been talking about coming for months.

There have only been 3 years since 1980 where we did not get a weather scare. 3 in 53 years.

Will still get a weather scare this year?…………

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Check Out Past Updates

6/12/24

WEATHER SCARES & CHINA DEMAND