USDA TOMORROW. MAKE OR BREAK SPOT ON CHARTS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Corn & beans sitting right at support
Tomorrows report will make or break the charts
Charts below*
USDA numbers below*
Past report performance below*
Market not looking for big changes
Most think the crop has gotten smaller
This report “could” bring opportunities before supply hits the market
We will see pressure in the markets 1-2 months from now when harvest supply hits the market
More upside than downside here
Protect yourself with cheap puts if you’re nervous
If we get a negative report, we will struggle to get huge recovery until post harvest
If it’s negative, we do not have farmer selling to make us keep going straight down
Listen to today’s audio below
Want future updates like this one? Subscribe to get our daily updates, signals & 1 on 1 market plans.
Try 30 days completely free: CLICK HERE
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
CHARTS
Corn 🌽
Tomorrow will be a huge day on the charts.
We sit right at $4.03 support.
A break below and we get a leg lower.
A friendly report and we bounce right where we should.
The market makers always pin us right at a make or break spot.
A negative report and we likely struggle until a good chunk of harvest is out of the way.
A friendly report, and we likely go test those $4.23 highs.
You can see that we continue to reject off this long term downtrend (black line). So a break above that would look friendly.
This pink line is still the biggest thing I am watching on the corn chart.
Old support turned new resistance.
If we can bust above, it’d feel comfortable saying we are going higher. But for now, the trend is still lower despite this recent pop.
Beans 🌱
Same story as corn. Sitting right at support at $10.00
Friendly report and we bounce right where we should.
Negative report and we break support and make a leg lower.
If we break support, my next support level is $9.85, then $9.61
To say the bottom is in from a technical standpoint, I still need to see us make a higher high at $10.42
Wheat 🌾
We continue to reject off that key $5.80 level
If we get a friendly report, it is off to the races as we would’ve cleared key resistance.
My targets are $6.12 and $6.40 still.
If we get a negative report, then we go back into the old range and are still range bound between $5.80 and $5.50 (green box).
Past Report Performance
This report has been friendly for corn the past 5 years in a row.
It has been friendly beans the past 5/6 years (only last year was bearish).
Past reports don’t mean anything, but it feels like this crop has gotten smaller not larger with the dry finish we had.
Chart Credit: @WalkSquawk on X
USDA NUMBERS
Corn is expected to come down to 182.4 from 183.1
Beans are expected to be unchanged at 53.2
On corn, this is the smallest trade range for this report in 20 years (180.5-183.5)
Beans trade range is larger than normal (52-54.9)
Harvested acres are expected to fall just slightly for both. So yield will be the market mover.
Chart Credit: Karen Braun
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
9/10/24
USDA THURSDAY
9/9/24
LOWS ARE IN UNLESS SOMETHING FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGES?
9/6/24
GRAINS WEAK. OUTSIDE DOWN DAY ON CHARTS
9/5/24
GRAINS GET HEALTHY CORRECTION. GETTING READY TO PROTECT DOWNSIDE
9/4/24
GRAINS CONTINUE RUN. WAYS TO PLAY THE MARKET. WHAT’S YOUR SITUATION?
9/3/24
GRAINS CONTINUE BREAK OUT FROM LOWS
8/30/24
ANOTHER STRONG DAY. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT BUT NO CONFIRMATION
8/29/24
CHANCE FOR A BOTTOM, BUT STILL CAUTIOUS. DIFFERENT MARKETING APPROACHES
8/28/24
WHEAT FOLLOW THROUGH WHILE CORN & BEANS GIVE BACK
8/27/24
DECENT PRICE ACTION. BASIS CONTRACTS. ROLLING VS FUTURES. NOT FALLING FOR BIG AG TRAP
8/26/24
FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE & CROP TOUR RECAP
8/23/24
CROP TOUR SHOWS MASSIVE BEAN YIELD
8/22/24
UGLY DAY FOR WHEAT & BEANS, STILL RISK, CROP TOURS, CAPTURING CARRY
8/21/24
CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT
8/20/24
CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA
8/19/24
CROP TOUR BOUNCE
8/16/24
RISK REMAINS LOWER. MANAGE YOUR RISK
8/15/24
DEMAND, BIG US CROPS & BRAZIL DROUGHT
8/14/24
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
8/13/24
POST USDA SELL OFF
8/12/24