MARKET UPDATE

Futures Prices Close

Overview

Overall poor day for the grains as corn takes a hit. Soybeans led us higher. After being down double digits and posting a new low, they rallied back to close higher.

Grains saw some pressure surrounding the political news. Trump is probably going to win the election. As you all know he chose JD Vance as his VP. So this pick solidifies what he wants to do with tariffs.

Today JD Vance gave a speech in Milwaukee which added pressure to corn & beans.

In his speech he said that Biden supports normal trade relations with China and they disagree with that. Vance said he sees China as the biggest threat to the US. So grains see this as a negative due to the potential relationship issues with China it could bring. China is of course by far the biggest buyer of US grain.

Along with this, Vance does not want to continue funding Ukraine for their war and ag. The US has been a huge funder for both, helping Ukraine remain more competitive on the global corn & wheat market. So if we no longer fund them, it could be slightly friendly for demand but isn’t going to make a major difference immediately.

The other big news was China. Unknown (most likely China) FINALLY bought old crop US soybeans. 510k MT of new crop beans & 150k MT of new crop meal.

So this was friendly and probably part of the reason beans bounced back today. It is good that we are finding some demand at these lower prices.

However as you all know we currently have the worst new crop book of sales ever. But this means they can’t get worse from here. Until today China has bought virtually zero US beans. Something to keep in mind is that we do typically see China start to ramp up on sales from July and into August.

Looking at weather, it is still bearish.

The next week lacks rain for the corn belt as most of it will be kept south, but it is suppose to be cooler than normal. So pretty much ideal for now.

5-Day GFS Precip

10-Day GFS Precip

10-Day Temp Anomaly

As I mentioned in my past updates, the normal weather market is gone. So we won’t go up or down on every little change we see in forecasts. So although it is bearish, it is not a major market mover anymore.

This also means we do not have a chance for a weather scare as I've mentioned before. Unless we get some crazy event in early August, beans could still potentially see a small scare. But the outlook for August looks ideal right now. So very doubtul.

Despite weather from now on not mattering much to the trade, the past weather we have seen still does. We still had the wet start, flooding, hail, derecho damage etc. However no one will know the extent of damage any of those events brought until at least fall.

Today's Main Takeaways

Corn

Weekly exports were weak. 437.8k MT, down -19% from last week and -10% below the average. So that didn’t help prices today.

As I mentioned, JD Vance's comments didn’t help corn prices either.

The weather is ideal, although turning into a non-factor for the most part.

Currently we are simply range bound, waiting for the technicals to flip one way or the other.

Let’s take a look at the exact levels to watch to confirm a bottom or more downside from here.

First we have…………….

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IN TODAYS UPDATE

Key levels to watch in corn
Levels we need to break in corn, beans, & wheat to confirm a bottom
2014 comp update
Seasonality favors lower prices but..
China buys beans
Pop coming in beans?
& More

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Check Out Past Updates

7/17/24

DEMAND, CHINA, POLITICAL PRESSURE, & TECHNICALS