USDA BREAKDOWN

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Grains get beat up

  • Report didn’t offer anything good

  • No huge changes in USDA

  • Poor price action despite neutral numbers

  • Corn yield slightly bumped

  • Sub 2 billion carryout on corn

  • Demand remains solid for corn

  • Won’t see where this crop is until Jan

  • Beans need to hold $10.00

  • Could get some harvest pressure

  • Carryout for wheat positive

  • Not many reasons to plant wheat

  • What’s next now?

  • $4.40-60 corn is still possible

  • A lot of positive things on corn demand side

  • Risk is to the downside next month or two

  • Put options still very cheap

  • Aggressive vs traditional hedging

  • USDA numbers below*

  • All charts below*

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CHARTS

Corn 🌽

Looks like we are testing the bottom of this channel like I had been mentioning we likely would.

I would really like to see us hold the $4.13 level.

That was our old resistance. It is now new support.

Beans 🌱

The bean chart looks the worst.

We still are holding $10.00, sitting in this support zone (green box from $10.18 to $10.00)

$10.00 is still a must hold. We just do not have much support below.

If we do break $10.00, the next stop is likely $9.80

Wheat 🌾

The wheat chart still looks pretty friendly.

We remain in this upward channel. Until it gets broken, this chart will remain solid.

If we can take out those recent highs, it should spark technical buying. My 2nd target is still $6.40

USDA NUMBERS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Oct 2nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 30th: 🌽 

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 27th: 🌱 

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 13th: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

May 22nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

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Sebastian Frost
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USDA TOMORROW