LOWS ARE IN UNLESS SOMETHING FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGES?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains mixed
All charts below*
4-5th biggest USDA report of year
What do the funds want to do?
Reasonable targets for floors & sales etc
Government doesn’t want to write big insurance checks
A lot riding on Thursdays report
Doesn’t feel like USDA should raise yield, but a definite risk
$11 beans isn’t out of reach
Need sales to pick back up in beans
Recent weather isn’t helping fill
What to watch moving forward
Watch out if Brazil stays dry
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CHARTS
Corn 🌽
Not much has changed since Friday.
$4.03 is still the key level to hold. If we do not, it probably sparks another leg lower.
If we want to go higher, we first need to break this long term downtrend that we rejected right off of (black line).
To say the bottom is in, I want us to clear that pink line and preferably $4.23
Look at my second chart to see why that pink line is extremely important to break.
That pink line is VERY IMPORTANT.
It was our support.
It is now resistance.
Beans 🌱
We bounced right off that new short term uptrend and held $10.00
$10.00 is still the key level to hold. If it breaks, we likely get a leg lower.
To the upside, the key level is $10.42. If we break that I’d be confident saying the bottom is in and we are probably going higher.
As that would mark our first higher high. Thus somewhat of a trend change. As we haven’t made a higher high in several several months.
Chicago Wheat 🌾
All eyes are still on this green box.
If we break out of it, it opens the door right up.
First target $6.12
Second target is $6.40
Those are the spots I’d be looking to start to add floors & sales.
KC Wheat 🌾
First target is $6.22
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Check Out Past Updates
9/6/24
GRAINS WEAK. OUTSIDE DOWN DAY ON CHARTS
9/5/24
GRAINS GET HEALTHY CORRECTION. GETTING READY TO PROTECT DOWNSIDE
9/4/24
GRAINS CONTINUE RUN. WAYS TO PLAY THE MARKET. WHAT’S YOUR SITUATION?
9/3/24
GRAINS CONTINUE BREAK OUT FROM LOWS
8/30/24
ANOTHER STRONG DAY. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT BUT NO CONFIRMATION
8/29/24
CHANCE FOR A BOTTOM, BUT STILL CAUTIOUS. DIFFERENT MARKETING APPROACHES
8/28/24
WHEAT FOLLOW THROUGH WHILE CORN & BEANS GIVE BACK
8/27/24
DECENT PRICE ACTION. BASIS CONTRACTS. ROLLING VS FUTURES. NOT FALLING FOR BIG AG TRAP
8/26/24
FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE & CROP TOUR RECAP
8/23/24
CROP TOUR SHOWS MASSIVE BEAN YIELD
8/22/24
UGLY DAY FOR WHEAT & BEANS, STILL RISK, CROP TOURS, CAPTURING CARRY
8/21/24
CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT
8/20/24
CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA
8/19/24
CROP TOUR BOUNCE
8/16/24
RISK REMAINS LOWER. MANAGE YOUR RISK
8/15/24
DEMAND, BIG US CROPS & BRAZIL DROUGHT
8/14/24
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
8/13/24
POST USDA SELL OFF
8/12/24
USDA REPORT: BEARISH BEANS. SMALLER CORN CARRYOUT & RECORD YIELDS
8/9/24