WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK IN THE GRAINS
This week it will all be about the USDA and positioning ahead of the big USDA report. The report will be out on Friday and it will include quarterly stocks and prospective planting acres. We will put out estimates later in the week, but remember the USDA outlook form had rather big numbers, so big numbers can be expected for the estimates. Some private estimates have been huge, off the charts huge so that will be the risk is that the USDA comes in with some unrealistic but huge numbers.
The market will quickly go from trading the USDA report to trading weather and demand. Lately the demand from China has been very strong and if that can continue it may lead to positive adjustments in the future.
Weather is going to be a mixed bag, will we see some delays in planting from snow cover in areas? Will we see dry weather set in after that as we transition from La Niña to El Nina? As we mentioned in last weeks newsletter more are starting to talk about possible drought in the corn belt. So that is something that we will be watching for is ridge building as we get into spring and summer.
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Factors to Watch
USDA Report on Friday, and the price action leading into the report.
Weather, will we get more snow causing planting delays? Or will we get warmer weather.
Chinese demand, will China continue to buy on daily flash announcements. This morning we had a flash sale to unknown.
Russian news. Will there be any more follow up news from the potential banning of wheat and sunflower exports.
Important Dates This Week
Thursday
USDA Export Sales - 7:30am CT
Friday
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report & Planting Intentions - 11:00am CT
Upcoming Weeks
April 3rd
First crop progress of the season
Grain & oilseed crush
April 11th
USDA WASDE Report
Past Updates & Audio
3/26/23 - Weekly Grain Newsletter
What Have Funds Already Factored In?
3/24/23 - Audio & Market Update
Russia Halting Wheat & Sunflower Exports?
3/23/23 - Audio Commentary
Chinese vs The Funds
3/22/23 - Market Update
Beans & Wheat Sell Off Continues
3/21/23 - Market Update
Beans & Wheat Continue to Disappoint
3/19/23 - Weekly Grain Newsletter