WEEKLY GRAIN NEWSLETTER

Here are some not so fearless comments for www.dailymarketminute.com

2012 vs 2013 vs 2023

Which history will be repeating itself or will we be writing a new history? When it comes to corn price action?

That’s the billion dollar question. A question that will be debated with every forecast change, ever missed rain event, and every unexpected moisture event. What complicates this question is we are dealing with a futures market that in theory has priced in everything that is presently known and a large amount of what is unknown or assumed to be in the future.

Below is a chart showing 2013, 2023, 2022, and 2021. Many times in the past several weeks have we shown the 2012, 2013, and 2023 comparison. 2012 traded put in a low in the middle of May followed by about a month of choppy trade before exploding higher in the middle of June, while making it’s high on the August USDA report.

Presently the corn market appears to have priced in what the USDA printed or assumes to be trend line yield. One thing that the USDA has failed to do when assuming trend line yield is having an adjustment for acres. The higher the corn acres the more fringe acres thus in this advisor’s opinion the lower the yield should be. The fewer the acres the higher the yield should be, because it would be the better yielding acres still getting planted. It is simple logic that the USDA has always failed to acknowledge at least at the start of a growing season.

Presently we don’t even have a corn crop condition rating. So it is very early to assume any size of a crop.

So which year are we more likely to replicate? 2012 or 2013….

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INCLUDED IN THIS WEEK’S EDITION

Fast planting and are our crops getting enough moisture
Is the 2022 drought moving north & east
Drought across the corn belt. How dry is it really?
Flash droughts in Illinois
USDA thinks Brazil is going to have a record corn crop. This assumption might be garbage
What is our downside vs our upside?
Risk management & being comfortable
Do you have too little or too much sold?
Choices you have if you are nervous of a 2013 repeat.