MARKET UPDATE

Futures Prices Close

Overview

Great day for the grains as corn reclaims $4.00 and all grains close higher.

As for news, we saw yet another flash sale of soybeans to China of 202k MT. This is the 2nd day in a row of sales, as we had 132k MT yesterday.

These sales are virtually nothing, but are hopefully a good sign that perhaps China is interested in buying. But these were likely just routine purchases.

When they are start buying a lot and we start seeing sales of +500k MT at a time, then that would indicate China is actually in a buying mood. If we saw that, it would probably give soybeans enough of a reason to see some short covering. But these last 2 small purchases won’t do that.

Weather still looks pretty ideal for most. It is too late in the year to get a big weather scare rally, but if it gets hot it could provide soybeans some support.

Right now most forecasts call for it to cool off the next 2 weeks, so I don’t see a major concern. However, there are a few Euro models that have some pretty serious heat. If these come to fruition, soybeans will be supported. But overall I am not expecting heat, as nearly every forecast is calling for cooler temps.

Here is a comparison of a euro model that has heat vs a GFS that does not.

The I-states are trending drier while Minnesota is expected to get even more unwanted rains.

Overall no real concern with weather to the markets unless something changes and they throw some heavy heat in.

The other big news yesterday was StoneX.

They released their yield estimates for corn & beans.

Here is some comparisons.

StoneX:

Corn: 182.3
Bean: 52.6

USDA July:

Corn: 181
Bean: 52

USDA Final 2023

Corn: 177.3
Bean: 50.6

Current Record Yields:

Corn: 177.3 (2023)
Bean: 51.9 (2016)

How accurate has StoneX been in past years?

Let’s take a look………

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IN REST OF TODAYS UPDATE:

Is StoneX accurate?
How to know when the bottom is in for soybeans
Bear trap in corn?
Biggest issue corn faces
Sell signal in cattle?
& more

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Check Out Past Updates

8/1/24

GRAINS RALLY, YIELD ESTIMATES, CHINA STARTS TO BUY