SEASONAL RALLY JUST BEGINNING OR BULL TRAP?

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Corn makes new highs

  • Funds still short a massive amount

  • Crop progress Monday. Might not be delayed

  • Wheat Russia crop is getting smaller

  • The market is finally starting to turn around

  • Why we sound bullish most of the time

  • Being in the top 10% of the market

  • Early stages of seasonal rally

  • Dates and price targets

  • When to watch for triggers for sales

  • Look for funds to continue to cover

  • If you have commercial storage

  • USDA report next week. Could add pressure

  • Might not go straight up the next few weeks

  • Late planting and heat isn’t recipe for huge crop

  • Have hand on the trigger next 1-2 months

  • Don’t do HTAs with elevators

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CHARTS

July Corn

We closed above the 100-day MA for the first time in 281 days.

We made new highs but barley closed above that $4.60 key resistance.

Would like to see a little follow through to confirm more upside.

Our resistance is now that upper trendline. Another strong day could bring more technical and fund buying.

Dec Corn

This chart looks better than the July. We took out $4.81 which was a huge level.

We are above the 100-day and that key resistance.

The next big resistance is the 200-day MA at $4.95 and then the $5.00 area. That is the area we gapped lower at after trading in just a 15 cent range for 141 days prior.

July Beans

As mentioned yesterday, we took out that first resistance. We have some good resistance here with the 100-day MA, the downward trendline from Nov, and those March highs.

If we can get above $12.40 things will get interesting as we have that $13.00 gap to fill.

July Chicago Wheat

We continue to find support at the 100-day MA and resistance at the 200-day MA.

If we can close above the 200-day it could lead to more upside.

July KC Wheat

Essentially the same as Chicago. We need over the 200-day to bring on more upside.

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sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Sebastian Frost
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