AUDIO COMMENTARY

Beans reject right at old support (chart below)*
Sometimes price action distorted in thin markets
Tale of 2 different markets: corn & beans
Corn spreads continue to firm while bean spreads weaken
Corn demand is still great
Demand equation & presidency effects
South America weather still hasn’t helped
Huge USDA report upcoming. Be prepared
Ways to play options via basis outlook
Corn could draw some producer selling
Beans “could” still fall $1.00 (chart below)*
Those that have to move grain in X months vs those that have time
Pretty good price action in wheat
Crucial spot for KC wheat (chart below)*
Still have no interest selling wheat here
Wheat still feels very undervalued here

Listen to today’s audio below

CHARTS

March Corn 🌽

Corn looks very solid. We bounced right in that golden zone & breakout point from the symmetrical triangle we had been talking about the past 2 weeks.

Next target is $4.67

It isn’t going to be a straight line, but ideally we hold that blue uptrend. My bias remains higher unless we break below the black upward trendline.

Notice the purple line curling higher. That’s the 100-day MA. That is a friendly sign signalling a longer term uptrend.

Jan Beans 🌱

Just like I mentioned Friday, the late week rally could have very well just simply been a case of a re-test before heading back lower.

We broke a significant support, so we came back to test it as new resistance and rejected right off of it.

Unless we break that downward trend we’ve been trapped in since May (green downward line) the chart looks like it wants to go lower.

We could turn at any point, but you have to be cautious that the implied move to the downside is still $8.63. So that is your risk.

Continuous Wheat 🌾

If we bust that green downward trendline, we likely break out higher.

Until we do so, the next support is $5.28 to $5.23

If that support level fails, our next support is in the realm of $5.00

Over the course of the past year, this area has offered a bottom a few times. Back in March and September we bounced around here.

Overall, I think wheat has more upside than downside here.

March KC 🌾

KC wheat chart actually looks surprisingly decent here. On the verge of possibly breaking that downward trend we’ve been under since May (green line).

We do need to hold this $5.40 level however.

Pretty crucial spot on the chart here for KC.

A break above green likely triggers more upside, a break below purple likely brings more downside.