LOWS ARE IN UNLESS SOMETHING FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGES?

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Grains mixed

  • All charts below*

  • 4-5th biggest USDA report of year

  • What do the funds want to do?

  • Reasonable targets for floors & sales etc

  • Government doesn’t want to write big insurance checks

  • A lot riding on Thursdays report

  • Doesn’t feel like USDA should raise yield, but a definite risk

  • $11 beans isn’t out of reach

  • Need sales to pick back up in beans

  • Recent weather isn’t helping fill

  • What to watch moving forward

  • Watch out if Brazil stays dry

Listen to today’s audio below

CHARTS

Corn 🌽

Not much has changed since Friday.

$4.03 is still the key level to hold. If we do not, it probably sparks another leg lower.

If we want to go higher, we first need to break this long term downtrend that we rejected right off of (black line).

To say the bottom is in, I want us to clear that pink line and preferably $4.23

Look at my second chart to see why that pink line is extremely important to break.

That pink line is VERY IMPORTANT.

It was our support.

It is now resistance.

Beans 🌱

We bounced right off that new short term uptrend and held $10.00

$10.00 is still the key level to hold. If it breaks, we likely get a leg lower.

To the upside, the key level is $10.42. If we break that I’d be confident saying the bottom is in and we are probably going higher.

As that would mark our first higher high. Thus somewhat of a trend change. As we haven’t made a higher high in several several months.

Chicago Wheat 🌾

All eyes are still on this green box.

If we break out of it, it opens the door right up.

First target $6.12

Second target is $6.40

Those are the spots I’d be looking to start to add floors & sales.

KC Wheat 🌾

First target is $6.22

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Sebastian Frost
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USDA THURSDAY
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GRAINS WEAK. OUTSIDE DOWN DAY ON CHARTS