USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
AUDIO COMMENTARY
USDA breakdown
Zero changes on US balance sheets
Market disappointed didn’t see exports bumped
If you haven’t sold anything and still need to move something this could be a trigger
If you have to move something in 30-60 days
Who should make new crop sales?
Old crop led us lower like we’ve talked about
World situation for corn is very friendly
World situation for wheat is also very friendly
Why you protect what’s overvalued
Hit $4.72 target Dec-25 corn (chart below)*
Made a 5% sale on generic sale tracker for new crop corn (tracker below)*
Listen to todays audio below
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CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
If we get a correction, looking for a bounce in the green box.
Thats the level bulls need to hold to keep an upward bias.
Continuous Corn 🌽
See how major of a spot this $4.97 level is?
It was major support several times, it is now resistance.
Like I mentioned a week or so ago, if we are going to struggle it would make sense to do so here.
If we bust above this level, it opens the door wide open to higher prices.
Big picture target is still $5.37
Dec-25 Corn 🌽
We hit my 2nd target at $4.72
So on my generic sales tracker I did price another 5% at $4.72. Bringing my total to 10% sold.
March Beans 🌱
Bulls would like to bounce right about now, otherwise it could trigger another leg lower.
We could technically drop all the way down to $10.13 to $10 and be fine from a technical standpoint as that would be the 50-61.8% retracement from this rally off the contract lows.
Bulls need to hold that green box however.
Looking to the upside, first upside objective is still another test of that black downward trendline. IF we bust that, then next target is $11.35
Nov-25 Beans 🌱
Next target I am looking to de-risk at is still $10.82
Then the bigger picture “possible” target several months from now is still the $11.50 area.
As it is the implied move from the inverse head & shoulders pattern as well as 78.6% of the May highs.
March Wheat 🌾
If we correct I am looking for a bounce in the green box (50-61.7% retracement of the recent rally). Bulls need to hold that.
Looking to the upside, $6.20 is still my target I am looking at to take risk off the table.
March KC Wheat 🌾
Would like to see us hold that green line at $5.89, but it is not the end of the world if we don’t.
Either way, next target to take risk off is still $6.30
USDA NUMBERS
UPDATED WORLD STOCKS TO USE
Generic Cash Sales Tracker
Due to requests here is our generic cash sales trackers.
This does not include any hedge recommendations etc. Simply cash.
This is futures prices.
For old crop there is no percentages as we only recently started tracking our generic sell signals. Future new crop sales will have percentages as we continue to make sales.
This will be included at the bottom of every update.
*NEW SALE: 5% NEW CROP CORN AT $4.72
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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