GRAINS CONTINUE WEAKNESS & DOLLAR CONTINUES RALLY

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Grains weaker yet again

  • US dollar strength continues to pressure

  • Wheat conditions improve

  • Some of Trumps appointments negative

  • Demand remains strong for corn

  • Is all of this demand front loaded?

  • Basis contracts & DP sitting over market

  • Market concerned this demand won’t be here later

  • Funds now long corn

  • No real bull story here

  • We still have a ton of beans globally

  • Beans would need a Brazil weather scare

  • Trump news tying into bean weakness

  • Friendly fundamentals on wheat long term

  • Nobody really needs wheat this time of year

  • Wheat usually doesn’t have a story late year

  • If you have basis contracts or DP

  • Wheat chart very ugly (chart below)*

  • Chart breakdowns below*

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CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

The corn chart looks the friendliest of the grains.

Short term, I think we could see us drop a little farther. $4.22 to $4.19 is our golden zone retracement from the recent rally.

This also coincides with the stochastic looking like they want to come down (next chart)

Something we need to watch out for is if this is a potential double top or not.

Ideally we would like to hold $4.19

My target to re-hedge or make sales for those that need it is still $4.39 to $4.46

This is where you can see the stochastic.

They are turning lower which often signals a decline in prices is coming. Short term of course.

Jan Soybeans 🌱

We dropped into the golden zone retracement of $10.11 to $10.02 that I mentioned Monday.

This is also volume support from here down to $9.90

So finding support or a bounce here would make sense from a technical standpoint.

Really can’t say we are down going down until we break that blue downtrend however.

I mentioned on Monday that the stochastic looked like it had topped out. Which often signals more downside.

It came down quiet a bit still has room to go a lot lower, so a little more downside here would also not surprise me.

Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾

Awful action in wheat.

We came right back into this downward channel.

We also broke that key $5.65 support.

There is really nothing stopping us from testing those old lows.

Would need a clean breakout from this channel to say maybe we are down going down.

Short term on the indicators it does look like we are possibly ready for a bounce (next chart)

The stochastics are almost bottomed out.

The RSI is reaching oversold territory.

Both of these point to perhaps a bounce sometime soon.

Dec KC Wheat 🌾

Same story as Chicago.

Nothing stopping us from those lows.

Need to bust out of this channel.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Oct 2nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 30th: 🌽 

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 27th: 🌱 

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 13th: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

May 22nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Sebastian Frost
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ANOTHER POOR PERFORMANCE IN GRAINS