CHANCE FOR A BOTTOM, BUT STILL CAUTIOUS. DIFFERENT MARKETING APPROACHES

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Very solid day across the board

  • Charts looking for breakout?

  • ALL CHARTS BELOW*

  • Big day for beans technically

  • Salty demand as of late

  • Funds still massively short

  • Fund buying has been met by farmer selling

  • At levels where we have a “chance” for bottoms

  • How high could a bounce take us?

  • Still no confirmation of lows

  • Not as much farmer selling going forward

  • If you can capture the carry

  • What should you do if you don’t have anything priced?

  • Aggressive vs conservative marketing

  • Possible SA concerns

  • Marketing isn’t one size fits all

  • Wheat outlook looks pretty decent here

  • What to do with wheat

  • Outperforming the market

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CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

Pretty much all the grains are on the “verge” of breakouts. But not quiet yet.

We are trapped in this channel (purple lines). A break out would look great.

A pop above $4.03 would look really friendly. $4.09 would look even better.

But really still need $4.23 to be completely confident we have found our lows. As that would mark our first higher high.

If you look at the 2nd chart, that pink line will be a big area if we can break through it. It is our old support turned to new resistance.

Nov Beans 🌱

Looking pretty decent here.

First real close above the 20-day MA since May.

We have rejected off this twice since July. 3rd time the charm?

We also have that brutal May downtrend we have respected thus far.

A close above the $10.00 psychological mark would look really friendly as we would take out 3 levels of resistance. (20-day MA, May downtrend, $10.00 level)

Not quiet a break out yet.. but if we can clear this level it would give me reason to believe we can go higher.

Really would like to see us make our first higher high above $10.42 before getting too comfortable about calling a bottom however. But looks good for now.

NEED follow through. A close back below the 20-day MA could trigger more selling & cause a reversal back down. Tomorrow & Tuesday will be important.

Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾

We clawed back into our old 35 cent range.

So this looks great in my opinion, especially after finally getting follow through strength on Tuesday’s key reversal where we posted contract lows & reverse higher.

BUT we need a break our of this channel. A break out of this channel (yellow lines) should take us back up to the upper end of this range at $5.80

Once we clear the $5.80 level I’d be pretty confident saying the bottom is in.

Dec KC Wheat 🌾

Pretty much the same story as Chicago. A break out of this channel could take us back up close to $6.20 area.

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Sebastian Frost
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WHEAT FOLLOW THROUGH WHILE CORN & BEANS GIVE BACK