ANOTHER STRONG DAY. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT BUT NO CONFIRMATION

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Beans over $10, corn over $4

  • Very good price action again

  • Charts all close to breaking out

  • ALL CHARTS BELOW AUDIO*

  • Think the farmer selling is over for now

  • A lot of stuff lining up for potential lows

  • Still no confirmation of lows

  • Who should be putting in floors

  • Protecting insurance payments

  • Very close to break outs on the charts

  • Would like another small push to call lows

  • Factors that could push us to new lows

  • Things to be considering in marketing

  • Taking advantage of the carry

  • If you have or haven’t made sales

  • Risk lines up after crop insurance pricing

  • Risks you need to watch out for and being set up to reward & protect

  • Charts right up against resistance

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CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

Corn breaking out?

We broke out of that channel I had been talking about, back over $4.00

We now have resistance at $4.03 and $4.09

Back above both of those would look really friendly. Would give us a chance to retest those July highs of $4.23

The chart looks pretty good today, but would still like to see us take out those July highs before getting too confident in saying the bottom is in.

Still cautious, but the recent price action has made me pretty optimistic.

We are also going to be seeing less farmer selling muting the fund buying. As we have had short covering, but it was met with farmer selling.

Likely won’t get a major move until at least mid-harvest. But could definitely be carving out a bottom here.

Could also very well get a move high into October insurance pricing.

We also had a weekly reversal in Dec corn.

Taking out last week’s lows by a wide margin, then closing right at least weeks highs of $4.01

Most solid week we have had in a very very long time.

Nov Beans 🌱

Beans closed above that May downtrend for the very first time, after respecting it for months.

We closed above the 20-day MA for the first time since May yesterday.

If we closed above that 35-day MA (pink line) things would look very good.

I did not like the fact that we closed well off our highs today, but this is the strongest beans have looked since our May highs.

Just like corn, I want to say the bottom is in.. but I still do not have confirmation. So cautiously optimistic.

Need us to make our first higher high to call the bottom ($10.42) until then, we could very well give this all back like we have in the past.

Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾

Wheat looks very very close to breaking out. Need out of this channel (yellow lines)

Once we do that, I think we go back up to those recent highs of $5.80

If we break $5.80 I would be very confident saying this was the low

So $5.80 is the key level to break long term. This channel is the level to break short term.

Dec KC Wheat 🌾

Exact same set up on KC as Chicago. EXCEPT KC actually looks like it might have broken out of this channel. But would like one more push higher to make sure its not just a bull trap.

Weekly key reversal in KC wheat Took out last weeks lows, closed above last week’s highs. Looks great here.

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Sebastian Frost
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