CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA

Written By Sebastian Frost

MARKET UPDATE

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Overview

So so day for the grains, wheat led us higher while corn gave back some of yesterday's gains and beans closed unchanged but well off their initial highs.

First things first, the crop tours.

I just wanted to note that no, the crop tour typically does not have a huge effect on the actual prices of the markets.

However, it does help us get a better understanding of how the actual crops look.

Here is a map of the tours.

Day 1: South Dakota & Ohio

South Dakota

Corn:
The tour sees SD corn down slightly from last year, while the USDA sees corn yield up +7% (+10 bpa) vs last year.

Tour 2024: 156.51
Tour 2023: 157.42

USDA 2024: 162
USDA Final 2023: 152

So overall, the tour thinks South Dakota the corn crop will be worse than last year while the USDA thinks they will be a lot better than last year.

Beans:
The tour sees pod counts up +1.3% from last year, while the USDA projects soybean yield up +7% from last year.

USDA has a 47 bpa this year vs 44 last year. A +7% increase. While the tour only sees a +1% increase from last year. (Image below)

The tour thinks beans will be slightly better, while the USDA thinks beans will be a lot better.

Overall the tour thinks South Dakota will be worse than the USDA does for both crops.

From Karen Braun:
"Soybeans have potential. Need more rain to reach it and the forecast looks dry ish. Corn is showing sins of excessive rain during/just after planting."

Ohio

Corn:
The tour sees Ohio corn down just slightly from last year's tour, while the USDA sees corn yield down -5% from year.

Tour 2024: 183.29
Tour 2023: 183.94

USDA 2024: 188
USDA Final 2023: 198

The tour thinks Ohio corn is in better shape than the USDA does. The tour sees Ohio corn being on par with last year, while the USDA expects Ohio corn to be down -10 bpa.

However, one thing to note is that the tour took place in the Western part of Ohio so it did miss some of those drought stricken areas farther east.

Beans:
The tour sees soybeans down -2% from last year, while the USDA expects an increase from 58 to 59 bpa (+1.7%).

So overall the tour sees beans worse than the USDA, while they see corn better than the USDA.

Overall, the day 1 for both states was friendly for beans. As the tour doesn’t see the bean crop being quiet as good as the USDA projects.

For corn it was a mixed bag. The South Dakota tour was friendly as the findings relative to the USDA were worse, while the Ohio one was not friendly as the findings relative to the USDA were better.

Today they will get into some areas where most are expecting massive record crops such as central Illinois & Indiana.
 

How accurate has the crop tour been in the past?


It is hard to compare the actual yield numbers when it comes to the crop tour. It makes more sense to compare how the crop tour vs USDA sees yield changing year over year rather than the crop tour vs USDA's actual yield numbers.

But if we take a look at the tours corn yield vs the USDA's final yield since 2001, here are the numbers:

Minnesota: -6.5 bpa
South Dakota: -5.3 bpa
Illinois: +3.9 bpa
Indiana: +4.2 bpa
Ohio: +4.6 bpa
Iowa: +6.7 bpa
Nebraska: +14.1

Based off past years, this would give us:

South Dakota: (156.51 - 5.3) 151.21 vs USDA's 162

Last year the tour had 157.42 and the USDA's final was 152. A -5.4 bpa difference.

Ohio: (183.29 + 4.6) 187.89 vs USDA's 188

Last year the tour had 183.94 and the USDA's final was 198. A big -14 bpa difference.

Historically, the crop tour does underestimate total US yield.

The past 2 years they have been -5 bpa too low on the corn crop.

So based on other years, whatever total yield they find this year, you might be able to add +4 to +5 and that could be accurate to this year's final yield. Unless we get a year like 2020 where the tour was 6 bpa too high.

So even if the crop tours project for example a 178 yield, historically we might actually be closer to the USDA's 183.

Today's Main Takeaways

Corn

Corn gives back a portion of yesterday’s gains.

Corn is competitive globally. Which is great. As we have the cheapest corn in the world out of the US Gulf.

However, we……….

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Sebastian Frost
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