AUDIO COMMENTARY & CHART VIDEO

Very bullish USDA report for corn & beans
USDA couldn’t get 180 bpa since 2018
Corn & bean yield fell outside trade range 4th time in 6 years
They dropped corn demand numbers
Beans go from near 500 to 380 million carryout
Corn spreads continue to be on fire. Why to hedge old crop vs new
This report sets the opportunity to use corn basis contracts and hedge what is undervalued via the spreads
This could change that acre battle story
Still issues in SA, but this report changed the fundamental story
Definitely real potential for $5 corn
45Z guidance added some fresh news
One of biggest yield drops ever for Nov-Jan
Snooze in wheat. Still see plenty of potential
Who should make sales here?
If you bought puts, make sure you are making sales to get your money back from the put
Do not re-own here if you made sales lower
Video chart update below audio*
Corn against downtrend from Oct 2023*
Why $4.85 is next target after $4.67*
Visuals from USDA report below*

Listen to today’s audio below

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VIDEO CHART UPDATE

Why $4.85 is my next corn target after hitting my $4.67 target. Beans hit short term target. Wheat still looks okay here.

I added pics of the charts below the video in case you prefer to read.

I also added some USDA visuals below the charts that show how corn carryout has decreased, how we have failed to hit 180 bpa etc.

March Corn 🌽

We hit the $4.67 target.

Next target is $4.85. Scroll to see why

Reason #1

It is the 78.6% retracement to our May highs.

We busted above the 50% at $4.56. Now sitting at the 61.8% at $4.68 (another reason why $4.67 was our previous target).

Next fib level is at $4.85

Reason #2

It is the implied upside objective from this ascending triangle we broke out of.

I mentioned this a while back, but the conservative target is $4.85

How you calculate the implied move is you take the range of the first test of the bottom of the triangle to the top of the triangle (35 cents) and add it on top of the point of breakout ($4.50)

$4.50 + $0.35 = $4.85

The more aggressive target would be to take the entire range of the triangle instead which is 48 cents and gives you an implied move of $4.99. But I am sticking with $4.85 for now.

HOWEVER..

Corn has a new challenge to face.

This downward trend from Oct 2023.

If we bust above this, it would be a big win for the bulls.

Today we rejected perfectly off of it.

March Beans 🌱

Beans hit that green box and short term target.

Next possible target would be a test of that black line that we have rejected a few times.

Still need to hold this red line, as there is a gap of air below. Meaning zero support until the lows.

Continuous Wheat 🌾

Nothing to change.

Need to hold this green box or we make a leg lower. Would like to think we hold, as this has been support several times.

Either way, bulls need to bust this downward trend from May to get excited.

March Wheat 🌾

Still think we are in a bullish falling wedge, but we can still post new lows and be in a bullish set up.

Bulls need to break the downtrend then the fun can start.

KC Wheat 🌾

Need to hold the lows.

Need to bust the red downward trendline.

Until one of those happen, simply range bound.

USDA VISUALS

Here is corn carryout by marketing year.

This is the 7th straight month it has been lowered.

The longest streak in +20 years.

Yield is still a record at 179. But the USDA has failed to reach trendline yield for the 6th year in a row.

Even with one of the best growing seasons ever for many, we still failed to reach 180 bpa once again.

The USDA has been calling for 180 since 2018.. it has not yet hit.

Chart from Karen Braun

This chart is from NoBull Ag.

Our carryout is the same as it was in 2020/21 and 2021/22 for the month of January. Altought 2020/21 took a nose dive after.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Jan 2nd: 🐮

Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Dec 11th: 🌽

Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Oct 2nd: 🌾

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 30th: 🌽

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 27th: 🌱

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 13th: 🌾

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

May 22nd: 🌾

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

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Check Out Past Updates

1/9/25

BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS

AUDIO COMMENTARY & CHART VIDEO

VIDEO CHART UPDATE

USDA VISUALS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

Want to Talk?

Hedge Account

Check Out Past Updates

USDA NUMBERS