AUDIO COMMENTARY

Explanation of today’s signal
Why we alerted this signal in corn & beans
Trump takes office next week. We are in SA weather market
Trump talking about tariffs & taxes
Puts explanation for new crop
Do NOT use old crop futures or anything else to hedge new crop. PUTS ONLY
Why we like short term puts for 95% of you
Cash sale if you don’t use like options
Ran into farmer selling today
Fundamentals continue to improve
Like moving what is overvalued vs undervalued
Why we don’t like HTAs
Picking your poison in marketing
MORE DETAILS ON THE SIGNAL BELOW*

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As a producer you have to ask yourself:

Would I be more mad if I sold today and the market rallied another +$0.50?

Or if I do not sell and the market tanked -$1.00?

Not long ago there was talk about corn with a $3 handle and sub $9 beans.

I think corn specifically still has potential upside.. but it would be silly to not consider rewarding a $0.70 cent rally in corn and +$1.00 rally in soybeans.

Today we alerted a hedge alert/sell signal for both corn & beans.

We recommended Feb puts for anything that has to be moved by the end of March or on any new crop you typically have sold pre-planting.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE ALERT

The Feb puts give 10 days of protection.

Trump is going into office in a week. Already talking tariffs. South America is in weather mode.

Grabbing a Feb put locks you in a floor in case we give back the rally.. while also keeping your upside open in case this market decides to continue rallying here short term.

EXAMPLE FOR CORN:

For 5 cents you can get a Feb $4.75 put that would create you a worst case scenario floor of $4.70 until January 24th.

The rally continues?

Great. Your put expires worthless but you make a good cash sale or can then get a higher priced put and raise your floor even higher.

The market tanks?

Your put has you covered and gives you a floor.

Hedge Math:

Put Strike - Cost of Put = Price Floor

$4.75 - $0.05 = $4.70 floor

Then once you lift the put, typical hedging 101 is to replace that put with a cash sale.

If you do not like options or do not have a hedge account, you should make a small incremental cash sale instead.

Perhaps 5-10% for both old crop and new crop. Whatever increment you usually make sales in.

Although we much rather prefer using a hedge instead of a cash sale here especially for new crop.

EXAMPLE FOR BEANS:

The same concept applies for soybeans.

The Feb $10.50 puts are 13 cents.

$10.50 - $0.13 = $10.37 price floor

If you don’t use options, make a cash sale instead.

CHARTS

March Corn 🌽

If we correct, I am currently looking for a bounce in the golden zone retracements from the recent rally from $4.53 to $4.80

The 50-61.8% retracements are $4.63 to $4.66

Next upside target is still $4.85

March Beans 🌱

Golden zone for a bounce if we correct is $10.15 to $10.25

Next possible upside objective is $10.80 range

Need to hold $9.89 support or there is very little support beneath.

March Wheat 🌾

Possibly breaking out of this falling wedge, but not great price action today.

Still think we eventually move higher.

Need another leg higher to confirm a breakout.

March KC 🌾

Also possibly breaking out but again poor action today.

Have to be careful that us above the new resistance trendline isn’t just a bull trap.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Jan 2nd: 🐮

Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Dec 11th: 🌽

Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Oct 2nd: 🌾

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 30th: 🌽

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 27th: 🌱

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Sep 13th: 🌾

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

May 22nd: 🌾

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Check Out Past Updates

1/13/25

MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL

AUDIO COMMENTARY

MORE DETAILS ON THE SIGNAL

CHARTS

Past Sell or Protection Signals

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Check Out Past Updates

BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS