WHY YOU SHOULD BE EXCITED ABOUT TODAY’S RALLY
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains higher despite poor outside markets
Corn is higher than before USDA report
Factors that could push corn higher
China on holiday, less exports
Possible spec moves in the wheat spread
Navigating your specific situation
Key indicators point to higher prices
Insurance pricing & what makes sense for you
Finding strategies if you are forced to sell
Scroll for technicals & crop progress/conditions
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THE CHARTS
Corn 🌽
On today’s higher prices, we took out our 20-day EMA, taking back all of yesterday’s losses. Next target? $4.92 1/2 then our 100-day EMA of $5.12.
Bulls need to hold $4.73 1/2.
Beans 🌱
Beans close green, but don’t manage to break above our 50% retracement of $12.82. That level is the current resistance we need to break to see higher prices.
Ultimately, I still think beans can go lower from here short term. Perhaps we look to test our June lows of $12.56 or our 38% retracement of $12.45. Bulls need to hold those levels if we don’t want to see $12.
Long term however, beans have plenty of upside. Right now is historically when beans start to turn around as well. So bottom line, don’t be surprised to see some short term pressure but long term outlook, fundamentals, and seasonals, all point to higher prices.
Chicago 🌾
Chicago sees a great bounce following the blood bath on Friday. Dead cat bounce? Maybe, maybe not.
Bulls need a break above $6 to confirm a reversal.
KC 🌾
Similar to Chicago, bulls need a break above $7.26 (27% retracement & previous support) to confirm we won’t see further downside.
MPLS 🌾
Bulls need to crawl back into that $7.60 area.
CROP PROGRESS & CONDITIONS
Harvest is just ahead of the average pace. But not as fast as last week or as the trade was expecting.
Corn conditions stayed the same, however bean conditions improved +2% vs last week (trade was expecting no change).
Corn 🌽
Matured: 82%
Last Week: 70%
Last Year: 73%
Average: 75%
Harvested: 23%
Trade: 25%
Last Week: 15%
Last Year: 19%
Average: 21%
Good to Excellent: 53%
Trade: 53%
Last Week: 53%
Last Year: 52%
Beans 🌱
Dropping Leaves: 86%
Last Week: 73%
Last Year: 78%
Average: 77%
Harvested: 23%
Trade: 25%
Last Week: 12%
Last Year: 20%
Average: 22%
Good to Excellent: 52%
Trade: 50%
Last Week: 50%
Last Year: 55%
Winter Wheat 🌾
Planted: 40%
Trade: 40%
Last Week: 26%
Last Year: 39%
Average: 43%
Emerged: 15%
Last Week: 7%
Last Year: 14%
Average: 16%