Futures Prices 12:15pm CT

Overview
Grains continue to do what they’ve done for a majority of the week and follow the outside markets. As yesterday the outside markets were strong and grains followed suite. This morning the outside markets saw a pullback, and grains followed suite. However, outside markets appear to be recovering from their early losses, and grains are now trading well off their early lows. The dollar back up over 111.40 (+1%) and the Dow Jones is weaker. However, crude oil is strong once again, helping corn, as corn is currently around +10 cents off its lows.

Today's Main Takeaways

Corn
Corn is trading slightly higher here this morning, and is well off its early lows. As Dec-22 is currently up around +10 cents from its early lows of $6.76 1/2.

Crude oil has been very supportive of the corn market the last two days. As crude is up around $6 the past two days alone. To go along with the dollar showing some weakness through out the past couple days. However, the dollar is up over +1% today which has added some pressure to the grains, but for the corn market, crude oil is helping make up for the lack in the other outside markets.

Demand, as has been the story for quiet some time remains a pretty big concern in whether we can see the grains push higher or not. The USDA's August ethanol numbers came in below expectations and were pretty disappointing. This wasn't much of a surprise however. With the U.S. dollar showing some weakness the past few days, we will have to see if that helps out the export and demand story.

Back during the ProFarmer crop tours, all we heard was talk about how the USDA needed to lower its yield. And numbers around or even below the 170 range were being thrown out. Now we are hearing talks about people in the fields saying their crop was actually better than expected. So we will have to wait and see what the USDA thinks.

StoneX came out with their October estimates. They had 173.9 bpa for corn, up from 172.5 a 1.4 bush increase. A pretty big increase

Harvest is in full swing, so we will likely continue to see some harvest pressure. Especially as the weather remains fairly cooperative for the time being.

The USDA WASDE Report comes out next week. You would think that with the cuts in both corn and wheat production that we would see smaller supply and demand numbers in the report.

Dec-22 (6 Month)

Soybeans
Yesterday we saw soybeans follow the outside markets higher as they led the grains. Today soybeans are seeing a pullback just like the rest of the outside markets. But similar to the outside markets, soybeans has seen a pretty good recovery despite still sitting in the red, currently down about -6 cents and +10 cents off their lows of $13.62 1/2.

There is no new export news, but similar to corn, exports and demand remain the biggest concern. Especially given the Chinese tensions and headlines we've continued to see, as well as lockdowns. Additionally, China is on an extended holiday this week, so exports aren’t looking to gain any traction for the time being.

Harvest is going along smoothly for the most part from what we've heard. The weather remains cooperative. So no real chance of weather headlines or scares here.

Argentina on the other hand looks like they are facing some problems as they start planting. Argentina had its driest September in 16 years. And the first 9 months of the year were the driest they've seen since 2013. Rain is very important down there for both corn and soybean yields, but right now the forecasts aren’t looking great. So these problems could eventually add support to the markets.

StoneX estimates lowered down to 51.3 down from 51.8 USDA is at 50.5 so their estimate is higher.

As mentioned previously, next week we get a look at the USDA WASDE Report, some are thinking we see a higher soybean carryout.

Soymeal & Soyoil

Soymeal up +0.6 to 402.1
Soyoil up +0.25 to 65.27

Soybeans Nov-22 (6 Month)

Wheat
Wheat strong again here today. Currently up around +2-7 cents. Wheat markets trading in a very large range. As the wheat market is also well off their early lows around +10 cents. But trading even further off its highs, nearly -15 cents lower.

With the the dollar being a lot weaker the past five days, most were hoping we'd see wheat break out higher than it has. We are still in an uptrend from a technical standpoint. But the circumstances of the outside markets recently were a great opportunity for wheat to break out and they just didn't.

I still think wheat has more upside, but back when the dollar was trading at all-time highs a week or so ago, the thought process for most was "if the dollar goes sharply lower, the wheat market should rally". Yes we've made some solid gains here and there but nothing to the extent of what most thought we would get if we saw the decline in the dollar like we did. So now what should we expect if the dollar continues to decline?

As has been the talk around the wheat market since early spring, the Russia and Ukraine situation is really just a mixed bag right now. You can't predict what Russia or Putin will do, so we don't really know what to expect the next headline to say.