AUDIO COMMENTARY

Record yields: 183.1 & 53.2
Corn yield up +2 bu but carryout decreased
Is corn creating a lot of demand at these prices?
Very bearish bean report
Bean acres +1 million & yield +1 bu. Leads to carryout out up +125 million bushels
Bean carryout up +25% yet only down closed -16 cents. Normally beans would’ve been limit down on a print like that
Beans break $10.00 support (Chart below)*
Spring wheat lower after increase last month
What to do as far as marketing goes
How to watch for sell signals
Watch what happens to demand
Have plans for basis contracts
Key reversal in corn (Chart below)*
Full USDA numbers below*

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CHARTS

Corn 🌽

Key reversal in corn, as we made contract lows than closed above the previous days highs.

Great price action but will need some follow through.

Back above $4.00 again. Testing that downward trend from June.

A close above $4.06 would look really friendly, but to be very confident the low is in, we need to see at least $4.23

I am leaning towards higher, but $3.80 is still a very real possibility if this reversal fails. We NEED follow through strength.

Beans 🌱

Beans below the $10.00 support. We bounced a dime off the lows, but we are still in free fall mode.

I’d like to see us take out that May downtrend to feel more confident about trying to catch a falling knife.

We have a long ways to go before calling a bottom.

As I have been saying for over a month, the risk is still lower until a bottom is confirmed. We are obviously still in a clear downtrend.

I have been saying that $9.60 is a real risk, and today that risk looks more possible than it ever has. Just be cautious if your risk is to the downside, because there could easily be a lot more downside in this market.

Look at the monthly continuous chart. $9.60 could be the next stop unless we bounce here. After that, I’d be lying if another $1 downside was impossible. Hope we don’t get there, but just be aware of the possible risks.

Our stocks to use ratio is on par with other bear market years. In other bear market years we saw low $9’s often.

Chicago Wheat 🌾

Wheat still stuck in a 30 cent range. No clear direction until that green box is broken. But I favor higher. Would like to see a break above $5.56 and I think we could get more upside. A break below $5.24 and we see more downside.