CHANCE FOR A BOTTOM, BUT STILL CAUTIOUS. DIFFERENT MARKETING APPROACHES
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Very solid day across the board
Charts looking for breakout?
ALL CHARTS BELOW*
Big day for beans technically
Salty demand as of late
Funds still massively short
Fund buying has been met by farmer selling
At levels where we have a “chance” for bottoms
How high could a bounce take us?
Still no confirmation of lows
Not as much farmer selling going forward
If you can capture the carry
What should you do if you don’t have anything priced?
Aggressive vs conservative marketing
Possible SA concerns
Marketing isn’t one size fits all
Wheat outlook looks pretty decent here
What to do with wheat
Outperforming the market
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
Pretty much all the grains are on the “verge” of breakouts. But not quiet yet.
We are trapped in this channel (purple lines). A break out would look great.
A pop above $4.03 would look really friendly. $4.09 would look even better.
But really still need $4.23 to be completely confident we have found our lows. As that would mark our first higher high.
If you look at the 2nd chart, that pink line will be a big area if we can break through it. It is our old support turned to new resistance.
Nov Beans 🌱
Looking pretty decent here.
First real close above the 20-day MA since May.
We have rejected off this twice since July. 3rd time the charm?
We also have that brutal May downtrend we have respected thus far.
A close above the $10.00 psychological mark would look really friendly as we would take out 3 levels of resistance. (20-day MA, May downtrend, $10.00 level)
Not quiet a break out yet.. but if we can clear this level it would give me reason to believe we can go higher.
Really would like to see us make our first higher high above $10.42 before getting too comfortable about calling a bottom however. But looks good for now.
NEED follow through. A close back below the 20-day MA could trigger more selling & cause a reversal back down. Tomorrow & Tuesday will be important.
Dec Chicago Wheat 🌾
We clawed back into our old 35 cent range.
So this looks great in my opinion, especially after finally getting follow through strength on Tuesday’s key reversal where we posted contract lows & reverse higher.
BUT we need a break our of this channel. A break out of this channel (yellow lines) should take us back up to the upper end of this range at $5.80
Once we clear the $5.80 level I’d be pretty confident saying the bottom is in.
Dec KC Wheat 🌾
Pretty much the same story as Chicago. A break out of this channel could take us back up close to $6.20 area.
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Check Out Past Updates
8/28/24
WHEAT FOLLOW THROUGH WHILE CORN & BEANS GIVE BACK
8/27/24
DECENT PRICE ACTION. BASIS CONTRACTS. ROLLING VS FUTURES. NOT FALLING FOR BIG AG TRAP
8/26/24
FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE & CROP TOUR RECAP
8/23/24
CROP TOUR SHOWS MASSIVE BEAN YIELD
8/22/24
UGLY DAY FOR WHEAT & BEANS, STILL RISK, CROP TOURS, CAPTURING CARRY
8/21/24
CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT
8/20/24
CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA
8/19/24
CROP TOUR BOUNCE
8/16/24
RISK REMAINS LOWER. MANAGE YOUR RISK
8/15/24
DEMAND, BIG US CROPS & BRAZIL DROUGHT
8/14/24
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
8/13/24
POST USDA SELL OFF
8/12/24
USDA REPORT: BEARISH BEANS. SMALLER CORN CARRYOUT & RECORD YIELDS
8/9/24
USDA REPORT MONDAY
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HUGE USDA REPORT MONDAY
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