THE PATH HIGHER & THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IN GRAINS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
USDA next week
Stocks as important as acres
March is just starting base line
Won’t know acres until June
Balance sheets have tighten recently
World corn situation minus US and China is the tightest of all-time (chart below)*
Forecasts for April wet
June, July, August forecasts dry
Should you price new crop corn before report?
How much do you normally have sold?
2019/2020 sky was falling. Then went unbelievably high post trade war
Be consistent in marketing so you don’t get burned
What happened in corn spreads today?
Cattle sell signal & hedge alert
Have to realize there is still risk
Corn holding where it needs to (chart below)*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk? (605)295-3100
CHARTS
Here is the world stocks to use minus both the US and China. Tightest all-time.
Doesn’t mean corn will go screaming higher. It just means that the rest of the worlds corn supply is tight relative to demand. Meaning there isn’t much room for error in the US crop.
May Corn 🌽
Bounced right where we needed to once again.
Finding support at the 61.8% retracment of this recent mini rally. We have found support there for the past 5 days in a row.
This is an important level to hold.
I am not going to go over every reason why. If you want every reason why I think we should hold this level check out yesterday’s update where I broke it down: CLICK HERE
Next upside objective is still $4.80
Once again finding support on the 200-day MA.
Another reason why this is key support we “should” hold.
Dec Corn 🌽
Nothing much to update.
Simply finding support exactly where it needs to.
At the golden zone of the entire rally off contract lows (50-61.8%)
Nothing too concerning as long as we hold the red box.
May Beans 🌱
Nothing to update.
Simply watching two things still.
The support below us. We break below there is no support until contract lows.
The 100-day MA. To call a bottom, we need to break above the 100-day. As it is key resistance.
Nov Beans 🌱
Exact same set up in Nov beans
May KC 🌾
Nasty day after the ugly doji yesterday.
I am looking for a bounce between $5.79 to $5.70 (golden zone 50-61.8% retracements of this rally)
So as a speculator, that is where I would look to buy personally.
Next upside objective is $6.34
If we break above that, it would confirm some of the higher targets. As we have some implied moves above $7.00 with the triple bottom pattern.
May Chicago 🌾
Nothing to update here.
Simply trapped in this channel.
Everything in between is noise.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
Want to Talk?
Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.
Hedge Account
Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.
Check Out Past Updates
3/18/25
SEASONALS, CATTLE HEDGE, CHARTS & DROUGHT?
3/17/25
WHEAT RALLIES. DON’T GET BACKED INTO A CORNER
3/14/25
MARCH 31ST REPORT THOUGHTS & WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
3/13/25
EXPLAINING RE-OWNERSHIP VS COURAGE CALLS
3/12/25
TARIFF FEARS. EU, CANADA, & ETHANOL
3/11/25
USDA SNOOZE. RECORD FUND SELLING A CONCERN?
3/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. GETTING COMFORTABLE IN MARKETING
3/7/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE WORLD & US SITUATION?
3/6/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES?
3/5/25
IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25