BE PATIENT MAKING SALES AT HARVEST TIME

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Markets are waiting to trade USDA report

  • Early estimates showing disappointing yields

  • Some moisture in the forecasts

  • Lot of talk this weather caused tons of damage

  • More upside in these prices

  • Lot of pent up demand in corn

  • Wheat has potential, but who knows when

  • Don’t be giving grain away and selling when supply is at it’s highest

  • Scroll to check out how dry the past 3 weeks were as well as how the crops are shaping up vs last year

Listen to today’s audio below

HOW DRY WAS THE 2ND HALF OF AUGUST?

Here is the past 3 weeks of precipitation compared to the last 131 years at this same time. A good portion of the corn belt coming in dead last.. How a crop finishes matters. Damage is being underestimated. Beans need moisture in the second half of August.

CROP CONDITIONS VS LAST YEAR

Some main takeaways:

Corn 🌽

Our top 4 producing states of Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota all collectively produce roughly 54% of the US corn. 3 of those top 4 are in much worse shape than last year.

% Compared to Last Year (% of US Production)

  • Iowa: -17% (16% of production)

  • Illinois: -14% (15% of production)

  • Nebraska: +12% (12.6% of production)

  • Minnesota: -23% (10% of production)

Beans 🌱

Not much to say here. Just take a look at how much worse our top 3 producing states are vs last year.

  • Illinois: -9%

  • Iowa: -17%

  • Minnesota: -17%

We simply cannot afford to lose bean bushels and demand isn’t slowing down.

Chart Credit: Kevin VanTrump

SOME SOCIAL MEDIA

Sebastian Frost
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WEATHER IMPROVING, BUT DAMAGE WAS DONE