CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Crop tour day 3 (Day 1 & 2 results below)

  • Crop tour not affecting market

  • Confirming big crop but holes

  • So far everything they found built into market

  • Corn & beans holding recent lows

  • Wheat makes leg lower

  • Wheat negates inverse H&S (chart below)

  • Corn still struggling to reclaim $4.00

  • Still plenty of risk to the downside

  • First notice day & basis contracts

  • Still waiting for confirmation the bottom is in

  • Insurance pricing coming up

  • Not much happening on the charts

  • Dry weather in areas that planted late

  • Long term we should see more demand

  • If have to sell off combine have a floor

  • Dryness in Mississippi could harm basis in some areas

Listen to today’s audio below

CROP TOUR RESULTS SO FAR

CHARTS

Corn

Still trapped under $4.00. A close above $4.03 would look friendly. Back above $4.09 would look really promising. To completely say we are done going down, still need $4.23-26.

Downside risk is still the $3.80 target if $3.90 fails.

Beans

Nice bounce from the lows, but nothing more than a bounce until proven otherwise.

A close above $10.00 would look promising. But to say the bottom is in, we really need to claw all the up past those late July highs.

Once that May downtrend is broken, the chart will look more friendly as well. Until then the risk is lower as we remain in a very clear downtrend.

Chicago Wheat

Yesterday I mentioned a possible inverse head & shoulders forming, which is a bullish pattern. However, today’s action negated that formation.

It is still possible, but we would need a bounce asap tomorrow. A break above that green box would be friendly. If that happens, then we have upside targets of $5.90, $6.00, & $6.25

If we break $5.24 the next logical stop would be $5.00.

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Sebastian Frost
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UGLY DAY FOR WHEAT & BEANS, STILL RISK, CROP TOURS, CAPTURING CARRY
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CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA