CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Crop tour day 3 (Day 1 & 2 results below)
Crop tour not affecting market
Confirming big crop but holes
So far everything they found built into market
Corn & beans holding recent lows
Wheat makes leg lower
Wheat negates inverse H&S (chart below)
Corn still struggling to reclaim $4.00
Still plenty of risk to the downside
First notice day & basis contracts
Still waiting for confirmation the bottom is in
Insurance pricing coming up
Not much happening on the charts
Dry weather in areas that planted late
Long term we should see more demand
If have to sell off combine have a floor
Dryness in Mississippi could harm basis in some areas
Listen to today’s audio below
CROP TOUR RESULTS SO FAR
CHARTS
Corn
Still trapped under $4.00. A close above $4.03 would look friendly. Back above $4.09 would look really promising. To completely say we are done going down, still need $4.23-26.
Downside risk is still the $3.80 target if $3.90 fails.
Beans
Nice bounce from the lows, but nothing more than a bounce until proven otherwise.
A close above $10.00 would look promising. But to say the bottom is in, we really need to claw all the up past those late July highs.
Once that May downtrend is broken, the chart will look more friendly as well. Until then the risk is lower as we remain in a very clear downtrend.
Chicago Wheat
Yesterday I mentioned a possible inverse head & shoulders forming, which is a bullish pattern. However, today’s action negated that formation.
It is still possible, but we would need a bounce asap tomorrow. A break above that green box would be friendly. If that happens, then we have upside targets of $5.90, $6.00, & $6.25
If we break $5.24 the next logical stop would be $5.00.
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Check Out Past Updates
8/20/24
CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA
8/19/24
CROP TOUR BOUNCE
8/16/24
RISK REMAINS LOWER. MANAGE YOUR RISK
8/15/24
DEMAND, BIG US CROPS & BRAZIL DROUGHT
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DEAD CAT BOUNCE
8/13/24
POST USDA SELL OFF
8/12/24
USDA REPORT: BEARISH BEANS. SMALLER CORN CARRYOUT & RECORD YIELDS
8/9/24
USDA REPORT MONDAY
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HUGE USDA REPORT MONDAY
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8/1/24