USDA TOMORROW. MAKE OR BREAK SPOT ON CHARTS

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Corn & beans sitting right at support

  • Tomorrows report will make or break the charts

  • Charts below*

  • USDA numbers below*

  • Past report performance below*

  • Market not looking for big changes

  • Most think the crop has gotten smaller

  • This report “could” bring opportunities before supply hits the market

  • We will see pressure in the markets 1-2 months from now when harvest supply hits the market

  • More upside than downside here

  • Protect yourself with cheap puts if you’re nervous

  • If we get a negative report, we will struggle to get huge recovery until post harvest

  • If it’s negative, we do not have farmer selling to make us keep going straight down

Listen to today’s audio below

Want to talk? (605)295-3100

CHARTS

Corn 🌽

Tomorrow will be a huge day on the charts.

We sit right at $4.03 support.

A break below and we get a leg lower.

A friendly report and we bounce right where we should.

The market makers always pin us right at a make or break spot.

A negative report and we likely struggle until a good chunk of harvest is out of the way.

A friendly report, and we likely go test those $4.23 highs.

You can see that we continue to reject off this long term downtrend (black line). So a break above that would look friendly.

This pink line is still the biggest thing I am watching on the corn chart.

Old support turned new resistance.

If we can bust above, it’d feel comfortable saying we are going higher. But for now, the trend is still lower despite this recent pop.

Beans 🌱

Same story as corn. Sitting right at support at $10.00

Friendly report and we bounce right where we should.

Negative report and we break support and make a leg lower.

If we break support, my next support level is $9.85, then $9.61

To say the bottom is in from a technical standpoint, I still need to see us make a higher high at $10.42

Wheat 🌾

We continue to reject off that key $5.80 level

If we get a friendly report, it is off to the races as we would’ve cleared key resistance.

My targets are $6.12 and $6.40 still.

If we get a negative report, then we go back into the old range and are still range bound between $5.80 and $5.50 (green box).

Past Report Performance

This report has been friendly for corn the past 5 years in a row.

It has been friendly beans the past 5/6 years (only last year was bearish).

Past reports don’t mean anything, but it feels like this crop has gotten smaller not larger with the dry finish we had.

Chart Credit: @WalkSquawk on X

USDA NUMBERS

Corn is expected to come down to 182.4 from 183.1

Beans are expected to be unchanged at 53.2

On corn, this is the smallest trade range for this report in 20 years (180.5-183.5)

Beans trade range is larger than normal (52-54.9)

Harvested acres are expected to fall just slightly for both. So yield will be the market mover.

Chart Credit: Karen Braun

Want to Talk?

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(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

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Sebastian Frost
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