AUDIO COMMENTARY

Grains failed reversal, back near lows. However we held yesterdays lows. Inside day.
Crop conditions added some pressure, with corn improving
This hot weather didn’t do much damage
Not much damage on charts besides Sep corn
Market expects crops to continue to get bigger
Path of least resistance remains lower
Still no confirmations of bottoms. Charts below*
Those that need to make sales off the combine
Funds record short but need a story to cover
Eventually demand will fix it, but that doesn’t have to happen in a timely manner
Price action today is scary

Listen to today’s audio below

CHARTS

Dec Corn

We have not confirmed a bottom until we take out $4.26.

We continue to bounce off the $4.03 level. Still a must hold level. If it breaks, the implied downside target is $3.80

Until $4.03 or $4.26 is broken, we are range bound.

Nov Beans

We gave back yesterdays reversal type action, and failed to get follow through strength. So the chart does not look very good. We did however manage to hold yesterdays lows. We need a bounce fast. The risk is still clearly to the downside and nobody wants to catch a falling knife here.

The level to break to confirm a bottom is still $10.97, which is awfully far away now after the recent meltdown. A break above that May downtrend would look friendly, but wouldn’t be a confrontation.

Sep Chicago Wheat

We have been stuck in a 30 cent range for a few weeks. Inside day today, as we held yesterdays lows. Risk is still to the downside. Need a break above at least this 30 cent range at $5.53 before even considering this is a bottom. But $5.67 would look like a good indication of a bottom.