GRAINS FAIL REVERSAL BACK NEAR LOWS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains failed reversal, back near lows. However we held yesterdays lows. Inside day.
Crop conditions added some pressure, with corn improving
This hot weather didn’t do much damage
Not much damage on charts besides Sep corn
Market expects crops to continue to get bigger
Path of least resistance remains lower
Still no confirmations of bottoms. Charts below*
Those that need to make sales off the combine
Funds record short but need a story to cover
Eventually demand will fix it, but that doesn’t have to happen in a timely manner
Price action today is scary
Listen to today’s audio below
CHARTS
Dec Corn
We have not confirmed a bottom until we take out $4.26.
We continue to bounce off the $4.03 level. Still a must hold level. If it breaks, the implied downside target is $3.80
Until $4.03 or $4.26 is broken, we are range bound.
Nov Beans
We gave back yesterdays reversal type action, and failed to get follow through strength. So the chart does not look very good. We did however manage to hold yesterdays lows. We need a bounce fast. The risk is still clearly to the downside and nobody wants to catch a falling knife here.
The level to break to confirm a bottom is still $10.97, which is awfully far away now after the recent meltdown. A break above that May downtrend would look friendly, but wouldn’t be a confrontation.
Sep Chicago Wheat
We have been stuck in a 30 cent range for a few weeks. Inside day today, as we held yesterdays lows. Risk is still to the downside. Need a break above at least this 30 cent range at $5.53 before even considering this is a bottom. But $5.67 would look like a good indication of a bottom.
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Check Out Past Updates
7/29/24
GRAINS SHOW SIGNS OF REVERSALS
7/26/24
BLOOD BATH IN GRAINS: EPA REVERSAL & WEATHER
7/25/24
CHINA, DROUGHT, FUNDS & RISK
7/24/24
BEANS LOWER DESPITE DROUGHT TALK
7/23/24
BACK TO BACK GREEN DAYS FOR CORN & BEANS: MARKETING DECISIONS
7/22/24
BEST DAY FOR GRAINS IN A LONG TIME
7/19/24
DULL MARKETS: STRATEGIES TO USE IN GRAIN MARKETING
7/18/24
DEMAND, CHINA, POLITICAL PRESSURE, & TECHNICALS
7/17/24
DIFFERENT GRAIN MARKETING SCENARIOS YOU MIGHT BE IN
7/16/24
RELIEF BOUNCE FOR GRAINS
7/15/24
GRAINS HAMMERED. TRADE WAR FEAR
7/12/24
USDA REPORT: LOW PRICES CREATING DEMAND
7/11/24
USDA TOMORROW
7/10/24
GRAINS CONTINUE TO GET HAMMERED
7/9/24
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7/8/24
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7/3/24
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7/2/24
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7/1/24
SUPPLY WILL BE THERE, BUT CAN DEMAND LEAD US HIGHER?
6/28/24
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6/25/24
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6/21/24
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6/20/24
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6/18/24
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USDA TOMORROW
6/10/24
IS USDA OVERSTATING CROP CONDITIONS? DOES IT MATTER?
6/7/24
WEATHER & USDA NEXT WEEK
6/6/24
ARE GRAIN SPREADS TELLING US SOMETHING?
6/5/24
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6/4/24
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6/3/24
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5/31/24
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5/30/24
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5/29/24
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5/24/24
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5/20/24
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WEATHER MARKET VOLATILITY CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
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5/15/24
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5/14/24
CORRECTIONS ARE HEALTHY
5/13/24
FUNDS DON’T WANT TO BE SHORT GRAINS
5/10/24
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5/9/24
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5/8/24
USDA IN 2 DAYS
5/7/24
WHO SHOULD WAIT FOR TRIGGERS NOT TARGETS
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5/6/24
GRAINS HIGHEST IN 4 MONTHS
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5/3/24
SEASONAL RALLY JUST BEGINNING OR BULL TRAP?
5/2/24
ARE THE TIDES STARTING TO TURN?
5/1/24